BTC $BTC
This rally surged all the way to near $80,000, yet the market’s open interest (OI) was actually dumped to a two-month low.
Many people watching the chart’s first reaction is that liquidity has dried up, but I think this is precisely the healthiest market signal we’ve seen recently.
As the price pushed higher, the leveraged contract positions were rapidly being cleared out. This suggests that the high-leverage shorts buried in the previous phase have been thoroughly flushed by this squeeze, while the longs did not mindlessly chase price and pile on high leverage. Compared with that kind of violent structure where the price rises, open contract positions grow heavier, and a cliff-like cascade of liquidations is always waiting to happen, the current distribution of positions and leverage levels have actually been cleaned up quite thoroughly.
However, from the perspective of position/coin-style competition, the other side of the coin is just as glaring.
The fuel used to forcibly lift the price through a short squeeze has been consumed for the most part. After the shorts have been squeezed out, if the price wants to keep expanding upward, it can’t rely on the passive thrust of “squeezing shorts” anymore—it must depend on truly incremental capital: namely, the real absorption capacity of spot holdings, and the continued net inflow in the spot ETF funding pipeline.
So the focus of watching the market needs to shift next. Instead of spending every day staring at the liquidation map and liquidation/burst statistics, it’s better to closely monitor when open interest starts to rise again. When leveraged capital re-enters, the key indicator of whether this move is a genuine breakout or only a phase top is whether spot capital can hold up the market and push prices stronger in sync.
#比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点 #比特币周涨23.6%
This rally surged all the way to near $80,000, yet the market’s open interest (OI) was actually dumped to a two-month low.
Many people watching the chart’s first reaction is that liquidity has dried up, but I think this is precisely the healthiest market signal we’ve seen recently.
As the price pushed higher, the leveraged contract positions were rapidly being cleared out. This suggests that the high-leverage shorts buried in the previous phase have been thoroughly flushed by this squeeze, while the longs did not mindlessly chase price and pile on high leverage. Compared with that kind of violent structure where the price rises, open contract positions grow heavier, and a cliff-like cascade of liquidations is always waiting to happen, the current distribution of positions and leverage levels have actually been cleaned up quite thoroughly.
However, from the perspective of position/coin-style competition, the other side of the coin is just as glaring.
The fuel used to forcibly lift the price through a short squeeze has been consumed for the most part. After the shorts have been squeezed out, if the price wants to keep expanding upward, it can’t rely on the passive thrust of “squeezing shorts” anymore—it must depend on truly incremental capital: namely, the real absorption capacity of spot holdings, and the continued net inflow in the spot ETF funding pipeline.
So the focus of watching the market needs to shift next. Instead of spending every day staring at the liquidation map and liquidation/burst statistics, it’s better to closely monitor when open interest starts to rise again. When leveraged capital re-enters, the key indicator of whether this move is a genuine breakout or only a phase top is whether spot capital can hold up the market and push prices stronger in sync.
#比特币未平仓合约降至两月低点 #比特币周涨23.6%
