BTC has touched as high as $79,400, with $80,000 being the key level the market was most focused on before today’s open.
Not because $80,000 has any special technical significance, but because it’s a whole-number level—large volumes of short liquidations’ stop-loss orders and long positions’ take-profit targets are clustered around it.
Now there’s a signal worth taking seriously: the skew in the BTC options market has turned negative for the first time this year. That means the premium for buying call options has overtaken that for buying put options. The market is telling you in real terms that participants are more worried about missing out than getting trapped.
Meanwhile, over the same period, open interest denominated in BTC has fallen from about 353,500 contracts to 312,600—down roughly 11% and to a one-month low. This suggests that in this up-move, leverage positions are being reduced, not increased—an overall healthy structure for the rally.
This afternoon, Waller will deliver his first themed speech of the year at Jackson Hole. This is one of the most important public windows for clues about this year’s Fed policy. The probability of a rate hike in September is currently around 36%—if Waller’s wording turns dovish, $80,000 may break today. If he turns hawkish, $80,000 will likely keep waiting.
According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares: this rebound is driven mainly by the macro story, not a crypto-specific one. BTC is extremely sensitive to expectations for liquidity and changes in real interest rates, and its reaction is completely in line with expectations.
In one sentence: $80,000 is right in front of you—this afternoon’s remarks from Waller will determine whether it breaks today or keeps waiting.
$BTC
#btc触及80000美元
Not because $80,000 has any special technical significance, but because it’s a whole-number level—large volumes of short liquidations’ stop-loss orders and long positions’ take-profit targets are clustered around it.
Now there’s a signal worth taking seriously: the skew in the BTC options market has turned negative for the first time this year. That means the premium for buying call options has overtaken that for buying put options. The market is telling you in real terms that participants are more worried about missing out than getting trapped.
Meanwhile, over the same period, open interest denominated in BTC has fallen from about 353,500 contracts to 312,600—down roughly 11% and to a one-month low. This suggests that in this up-move, leverage positions are being reduced, not increased—an overall healthy structure for the rally.
This afternoon, Waller will deliver his first themed speech of the year at Jackson Hole. This is one of the most important public windows for clues about this year’s Fed policy. The probability of a rate hike in September is currently around 36%—if Waller’s wording turns dovish, $80,000 may break today. If he turns hawkish, $80,000 will likely keep waiting.
According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares: this rebound is driven mainly by the macro story, not a crypto-specific one. BTC is extremely sensitive to expectations for liquidity and changes in real interest rates, and its reaction is completely in line with expectations.
In one sentence: $80,000 is right in front of you—this afternoon’s remarks from Waller will determine whether it breaks today or keeps waiting.
$BTC
#btc触及80000美元
