Let me share the order-following situation and the trading plan. I already posted the viewpoint just now, so I won’t repeat it—I'll explain the trading logic instead.
The peak of this wave of order-following was around 20,000U; it’s currently around 17,500U, down about 12.5%. This is the biggest drawdown in the past half year. The last time it was about 10% was during the drop from 82,000 to 59,000.
A group member asked why I didn’t do scalp trades to recoup some losses. I’ll use this to reply to everyone who follows me and friends who are copying my trades.
Trading has to be based on expectations. Before the breakout, I’ve kept holding the short positions because I still expected a “deep pullback,” so I kept holding to avoid letting emotions get the better of me and blindly cutting at the top.
But if it breaks through and pulls back into that mid-year 82,000 peak range, then the probability of a sideways consolidation will rise significantly. At that point, I can short as well—but then it would only be suitable for short-term trades, because the sideways consolidation expectation has increased.
Conversely, if it rises above 80,000 but it’s not consolidating sideways and instead breaks back below the 76,000 support again, then I would still hold onto the short positions long-term.
In short: the trades and the viewpoint must match, and they need to be adjusted continuously.
#比特币周涨23.6%
The peak of this wave of order-following was around 20,000U; it’s currently around 17,500U, down about 12.5%. This is the biggest drawdown in the past half year. The last time it was about 10% was during the drop from 82,000 to 59,000.
A group member asked why I didn’t do scalp trades to recoup some losses. I’ll use this to reply to everyone who follows me and friends who are copying my trades.
Trading has to be based on expectations. Before the breakout, I’ve kept holding the short positions because I still expected a “deep pullback,” so I kept holding to avoid letting emotions get the better of me and blindly cutting at the top.
But if it breaks through and pulls back into that mid-year 82,000 peak range, then the probability of a sideways consolidation will rise significantly. At that point, I can short as well—but then it would only be suitable for short-term trades, because the sideways consolidation expectation has increased.
Conversely, if it rises above 80,000 but it’s not consolidating sideways and instead breaks back below the 76,000 support again, then I would still hold onto the short positions long-term.
In short: the trades and the viewpoint must match, and they need to be adjusted continuously.
#比特币周涨23.6%
