It’s that time again to review. After the rise, someone immediately comes out to take credit, saying that U.S. Treasury long-end buybacks and ETF inflows together pushed the market higher.
QCP’s point is similar: increased long-end Treasury buybacks, with ETF money not stopping, and the market gets pushed along.
Last Monday, BTC touched 79,500, up more than 20%, its strongest week since March 2024.
But what we should watch most isn’t Bitcoin—it’s the Treasury. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was on the verge of pressing up toward 5.3%, the highest since 2007. Then the Treasury issued a single announcement: starting September 9, long-end buybacks would be increased from up to $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The yield promptly pulled back on the spot.
It’s as if the Treasury itself stepped in and put a foot on the brakes for rates. That 20% in “BTC” isn’t an isolated thing—it’s the same story as the rates market.
They want me to track this week’s three major macro variables, and none of them are even listed.
Up if it wants to rise, down if it wants to fall—don’t bother me with these terms.
QCP’s point is similar: increased long-end Treasury buybacks, with ETF money not stopping, and the market gets pushed along.
Last Monday, BTC touched 79,500, up more than 20%, its strongest week since March 2024.
But what we should watch most isn’t Bitcoin—it’s the Treasury. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was on the verge of pressing up toward 5.3%, the highest since 2007. Then the Treasury issued a single announcement: starting September 9, long-end buybacks would be increased from up to $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The yield promptly pulled back on the spot.
It’s as if the Treasury itself stepped in and put a foot on the brakes for rates. That 20% in “BTC” isn’t an isolated thing—it’s the same story as the rates market.
They want me to track this week’s three major macro variables, and none of them are even listed.
Up if it wants to rise, down if it wants to fall—don’t bother me with these terms.