AAVE surged from 92 to 145 in a week, then got rejected three times in a row by that 145 “wall.” The short-term price broke below the moving average. Meanwhile, spot markets actively stacked sell orders, pushing the sell volume to one and a half times the buy volume—on the surface, it looks like the “top-and-pullback” script.
But over the past two days, the money hasn’t backed off; it’s actually been speeding up its entry. Spot leverage borrowed coins and spiked by 938% within 12 hours, while contract open interest expanded another 24% in a day. Whale long positions added another 5.35% over 7 hours. Even more, spot funds are still net inflowing over the past 3 hours. The strangest part is the funding rate: it stayed cold all the way down to 0.01%. After a 61% rise, longs still aren’t getting carried away.
This combination—more people adding leverage as price falls, and funding staying icy—looks like accumulation/whipsaw, not distribution. Leverage is being built during the pullback, which suggests the second wave of buying is still on the way. 145 is unlikely to be the ceiling for this current cycle.
I’m choosing to go long. The 138 area is the buildup zone for a second push. The first goal is to reclaim 145; once that breaks, upside room naturally opens.
Signs of reversal: the funding rate ramps quickly to 0.05% or higher, or spot net inflows flip from red to green while open interest turns down and starts contracting. If price breaks below the 24-hour low of 122, that’s when leveraged longs begin to get liquidated and exit, and only then would the primary uptrend structure truly be considered broken.
#aave $AAVE
But over the past two days, the money hasn’t backed off; it’s actually been speeding up its entry. Spot leverage borrowed coins and spiked by 938% within 12 hours, while contract open interest expanded another 24% in a day. Whale long positions added another 5.35% over 7 hours. Even more, spot funds are still net inflowing over the past 3 hours. The strangest part is the funding rate: it stayed cold all the way down to 0.01%. After a 61% rise, longs still aren’t getting carried away.
This combination—more people adding leverage as price falls, and funding staying icy—looks like accumulation/whipsaw, not distribution. Leverage is being built during the pullback, which suggests the second wave of buying is still on the way. 145 is unlikely to be the ceiling for this current cycle.
I’m choosing to go long. The 138 area is the buildup zone for a second push. The first goal is to reclaim 145; once that breaks, upside room naturally opens.
Signs of reversal: the funding rate ramps quickly to 0.05% or higher, or spot net inflows flip from red to green while open interest turns down and starts contracting. If price breaks below the 24-hour low of 122, that’s when leveraged longs begin to get liquidated and exit, and only then would the primary uptrend structure truly be considered broken.
#aave $AAVE
