I closed my Bitcoin long positions. My thinking has slowly shifted into the bigger uptrend—bullish!
I’m planning to start building long-term spot positions.
During the past few weeks, when we were buying the dip, we kept thinking there would be a bounce.
We initially expected the bounce to end around the 70,000 level.
But after this bounce exceeded my expectations, I’ve been observing and not taking action these past few days.
The two key things I like to watch most are:
“Open interest” and the “MVRV Z-Score.”
When combined with the fact that the total market cap of altcoins is flying higher, my thinking gradually shifts from “a bounce” to “a reversal.”
Even though a lot of data still doesn’t fully match—for example, at previous bear-market bottoms, trading volume would expand—this time the volume is extremely low.
But in the last bull market, it also didn’t meet many conditions before it directly flipped to a bear trend.
I believe the 52k high-probability level we were waiting for likely won’t come.
There may be one final drop in the market, but how much it drops will depend on the options.
The option strike prices are approximately:
85,000 for calls and 72,000 for puts; we don’t know the expiration time.
This leg up started around the 64k area.
So if we see a pullback, the high-probability zone is likely in the 64–72 range.
Moving up into the 85k range, the bullish call positions may get closed out.
We built quite a few positions at the bottom. Although we managed to capture some profit,
unfortunately, we missed the middle move, and the last leg wasn’t done perfectly.
After selling, what remains in my hands is 10% MicroStrategy, and I don’t plan to sell that position.
I’ll gradually start building long-term positions.
The adjusted allocation will be整理ed and posted later.
$BTC
I’m planning to start building long-term spot positions.
During the past few weeks, when we were buying the dip, we kept thinking there would be a bounce.
We initially expected the bounce to end around the 70,000 level.
But after this bounce exceeded my expectations, I’ve been observing and not taking action these past few days.
The two key things I like to watch most are:
“Open interest” and the “MVRV Z-Score.”
When combined with the fact that the total market cap of altcoins is flying higher, my thinking gradually shifts from “a bounce” to “a reversal.”
Even though a lot of data still doesn’t fully match—for example, at previous bear-market bottoms, trading volume would expand—this time the volume is extremely low.
But in the last bull market, it also didn’t meet many conditions before it directly flipped to a bear trend.
I believe the 52k high-probability level we were waiting for likely won’t come.
There may be one final drop in the market, but how much it drops will depend on the options.
The option strike prices are approximately:
85,000 for calls and 72,000 for puts; we don’t know the expiration time.
This leg up started around the 64k area.
So if we see a pullback, the high-probability zone is likely in the 64–72 range.
Moving up into the 85k range, the bullish call positions may get closed out.
We built quite a few positions at the bottom. Although we managed to capture some profit,
unfortunately, we missed the middle move, and the last leg wasn’t done perfectly.
After selling, what remains in my hands is 10% MicroStrategy, and I don’t plan to sell that position.
I’ll gradually start building long-term positions.
The adjusted allocation will be整理ed and posted later.
$BTC