Since early July, Bitcoin has climbed from $60k to $78k. Along the way, the total amount of money positioned in the market has grown from $20.6B to $24.9B — near the highest level of this window.

But here's the interesting part: the share of that money backed by borrowing has been falling, not rising. It peaked on August 14 — before the rally even started — and has been drifting down ever since, even as prices jumped after August 19.

That's unusual. Rallies driven by borrowed money tend to end violently, because lenders can force-sell positions when prices dip. A rally where fresh money arrives without growing leverage is built on firmer ground.

This doesn't guarantee the price keeps rising. But compared to mid-August — when borrowing was at its peak and price was going nowhere — today's structure looks a lot healthier.

If the borrowed-money share starts climbing back while prices stall, that's the warning sign to watch for. We're not there yet.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu