In the last week of August, AI trading faces a real major test
The market is moving from the first phase of “telling a story” into the second phase of “pricing in results.” With U.S. Treasury yields and financing costs remaining high, investors are no longer satisfied with AI concepts; they’re now starting to precisely calculate returns on investment (ROI)
🪁 Three key focuses this week
▶️ Nvidia earnings report
Not only does it need to beat expectations, but investors will also look at the shipment progress of Blackwell, the sustainability of cloud providers’ CapEx, and gross margins. If guidance is strong, it will lift the sector. If there’s a lack of new catalysts, valuations may face compression
▶️ July PCE inflation
If the data cools off, it will ease valuation pressure on growth stocks. If it rises, it will intensify concerns about high interest rates
▶️ Jackson Hole symposium
Watch for signals from the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts and the broader macro direction
🪁 Future trends and differentiation
Previously, valuations expanded driven by capital inflows. Going forward, upside will be driven by earnings performance. The AI theme won’t disappear, but differentiation will increase
▶️ Favored: foundational infrastructure with orders, cash flow, and barriers—chip leaders, optical modules, power supplies, and cooling
▶️ To avoid: pure-concept AI stocks without earnings support, and small-cap AI stocks
💡 The key is not to bet on Nvidia’s short-term rise or fall, but to confirm whether the AI capital expenditure cycle is continuing to accelerate or entering a validation phase. If earnings and inflation move in tandem, the market will likely see a new round of repair. Otherwise, short-term pullbacks may persist
DYOR
The market is moving from the first phase of “telling a story” into the second phase of “pricing in results.” With U.S. Treasury yields and financing costs remaining high, investors are no longer satisfied with AI concepts; they’re now starting to precisely calculate returns on investment (ROI)
🪁 Three key focuses this week
▶️ Nvidia earnings report
Not only does it need to beat expectations, but investors will also look at the shipment progress of Blackwell, the sustainability of cloud providers’ CapEx, and gross margins. If guidance is strong, it will lift the sector. If there’s a lack of new catalysts, valuations may face compression
▶️ July PCE inflation
If the data cools off, it will ease valuation pressure on growth stocks. If it rises, it will intensify concerns about high interest rates
▶️ Jackson Hole symposium
Watch for signals from the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts and the broader macro direction
🪁 Future trends and differentiation
Previously, valuations expanded driven by capital inflows. Going forward, upside will be driven by earnings performance. The AI theme won’t disappear, but differentiation will increase
▶️ Favored: foundational infrastructure with orders, cash flow, and barriers—chip leaders, optical modules, power supplies, and cooling
▶️ To avoid: pure-concept AI stocks without earnings support, and small-cap AI stocks
💡 The key is not to bet on Nvidia’s short-term rise or fall, but to confirm whether the AI capital expenditure cycle is continuing to accelerate or entering a validation phase. If earnings and inflation move in tandem, the market will likely see a new round of repair. Otherwise, short-term pullbacks may persist
DYOR
