From 0.75 to 1.29 in seven days—up 55%. But today it’s fallen back to 1.17, and it can’t even hold above the 50-day moving average. In this spot, I don’t think it’s consolidation; I think it’s distribution.
What stands out most is the funds: in the past three hours, the spot market saw a net outflow of 2.7 million USDT, and among the twelve candlesticks, not a single one shows net inflow. The higher it goes, the busier the sellers get—this move essentially lifts the money via futures leverage, while spot stays beside it to receive the chips and push them back out.
On-chain, it’s cooperating too: the lending leverage collapsed 89% over twelve hours, and the borrowed-and-leveraged money is being withdrawn. RSI is 80.6 and MFI is 89.3—both are overbought. Whale positions are three times higher, and longs make up 75%—the more crowded the long orders are, the more it resembles a distribution top.
So I’m bearish and I’m going short. The 50-line range from 1.17 to 1.19 is the entry zone. My first target is 1.11. If it breaks the previous low, I’ll look lower.
When I’ll admit I’m wrong: when the spot market’s net inflow over three hours turns back to red, and the price reclaims above the moving averages with volume breaking above 1.29—I’ll close the position and go the other way. That would mean this wasn’t distribution, but a shakeout.
#zro $ZRO
What stands out most is the funds: in the past three hours, the spot market saw a net outflow of 2.7 million USDT, and among the twelve candlesticks, not a single one shows net inflow. The higher it goes, the busier the sellers get—this move essentially lifts the money via futures leverage, while spot stays beside it to receive the chips and push them back out.
On-chain, it’s cooperating too: the lending leverage collapsed 89% over twelve hours, and the borrowed-and-leveraged money is being withdrawn. RSI is 80.6 and MFI is 89.3—both are overbought. Whale positions are three times higher, and longs make up 75%—the more crowded the long orders are, the more it resembles a distribution top.
So I’m bearish and I’m going short. The 50-line range from 1.17 to 1.19 is the entry zone. My first target is 1.11. If it breaks the previous low, I’ll look lower.
When I’ll admit I’m wrong: when the spot market’s net inflow over three hours turns back to red, and the price reclaims above the moving averages with volume breaking above 1.29—I’ll close the position and go the other way. That would mean this wasn’t distribution, but a shakeout.
#zro $ZRO
