8.24 SanDisk Analysis
On the four-hour timeframe, the market shows the continuing bear pattern of the “falling three methods,” forming the early shape of a further decline. Price is running tight along the lower Bollinger Band at 1534, creating a “single-needle probing the bottom” resistance, but it has not effectively escaped the gravity of the lower band. RSI(6) recorded an extreme value of 16.64, entering the “low-level dulling” zone; however, the negative spread between the MACD DIF and DEA continues to widen, forming a “bearish suffocation” signal. Any rebound is restrained by the suppressive effect of the EMA reverting downward. Large sell orders totaling $9.24 million have been stacked on the order book, creating a “heavy mountain pressing down” situation, leaving the bulls with little ability to counter. Be cautious of the “stop-hunt and then liquidation” style follow-through decline.
If the prior low at 1521.66 is broken, it will trigger a measured downside move based on a “flag” pattern. Otherwise, only by reclaiming the lower Bollinger Band at 1534 with increased volume and getting the DIF to turn will it be reasonable to view it as a weak-to-strong signal after “bear power exhaustion.” For now, treat the market as a sluggish downtrend where rallies fail to break above the prior high.
Trading suggestion: go long on dips at 1505–1525, set a stop at 1490. Target 1550–1600. If support breaks, look for price above 1650.
On the four-hour timeframe, the market shows the continuing bear pattern of the “falling three methods,” forming the early shape of a further decline. Price is running tight along the lower Bollinger Band at 1534, creating a “single-needle probing the bottom” resistance, but it has not effectively escaped the gravity of the lower band. RSI(6) recorded an extreme value of 16.64, entering the “low-level dulling” zone; however, the negative spread between the MACD DIF and DEA continues to widen, forming a “bearish suffocation” signal. Any rebound is restrained by the suppressive effect of the EMA reverting downward. Large sell orders totaling $9.24 million have been stacked on the order book, creating a “heavy mountain pressing down” situation, leaving the bulls with little ability to counter. Be cautious of the “stop-hunt and then liquidation” style follow-through decline.
If the prior low at 1521.66 is broken, it will trigger a measured downside move based on a “flag” pattern. Otherwise, only by reclaiming the lower Bollinger Band at 1534 with increased volume and getting the DIF to turn will it be reasonable to view it as a weak-to-strong signal after “bear power exhaustion.” For now, treat the market as a sluggish downtrend where rallies fail to break above the prior high.
Trading suggestion: go long on dips at 1505–1525, set a stop at 1490. Target 1550–1600. If support breaks, look for price above 1650.
