周期教授

Everyone who seems to be betting against Moutai can’t really come up with the stake to go head-to-head with Duan Yongping

And only shareholders who truly have the ability can grow Moutai

High—really, really high.

I heard that now, AI companies that are making money are all drinking Moutai vintage liquor as well

$SPCXB SpaceX rebounded by 25%, but I still don’t recommend buying.

The valuation of this company is too high, and right now it’s purely a story stock—based on hype. I think most people watching this planet every day don’t have assets over 100 million and also haven’t been eating the big meat in the US stock market. If you can’t meet the two conditions above, then there really isn’t a reason to get involved in the future-humanity plan’s dream.

This is basically a big meme coin. It entirely depends on how Musk can hoodwink big institutions and large capital that trade inside. For small retail investors, the probability of losing money is higher than the probability of making money.

If you really want to buy, don’t consider entering once it’s above 100...

Deng Yongping’s buy price is around 90.

$XAUT $XAG Gold and silver have already begun rising on the right side

From the candlestick charts, we can see that gold and silver have ended the long six-month consolidation in the earlier period. Next, we will still look to see whether gold can return to safe-haven demand. But based on current conditions, precious metals also have tremendous demand in the AI sector.

In addition, our country is also buying a large amount of gold. At this current price, there is no issue with using it for home portfolio allocation.

$BTC Bitcoin liquidity doesn't look optimistic

At the moment, Bitcoin has only been absorbing a small portion of the AI hard-tech sector.

Right now, when SanDisk $SNDKB $DRAMB rises, even if the Nasdaq manages to hold steady,

Bitcoin also shows a pullback—this isn't a good sign. In the short term, we should pay attention.

I just said earlier that no matter how the CPI turns out, it’s not a bad thing for technology.

Ahead of the market open $DRAMB surged 6.5% $SMHB rose 3%

Congratulations to friends who hold spot positions.

#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉

Tonight, CPI will be released—will AI tech stocks rise or fall?

Regarding the CPI release, I’m more concerned about the stock market’s direction. Let’s look at it from another angle: in recent years, the best-performing fund company in China, Oriental Harbor, has fully gone all-in on upstream semiconductors, AI computing hardware, storage, and optical communications.

Cloud providers’ AI capital expenditure guidance remains strong. I believe ordinary people should buy on dips at $SMHB and $DRAMB . The degree to which earnings from computing, storage, and optical communications can be realized will still support the stock price, leading to a choppy upward trend.

Next, let’s consider two scenarios?

If tonight’s CPI data comes in below expectations, concerns about tightening policy will ease, and the market will prioritize tech growth stocks.

If CPI inflation data exceeds expectations, the market may reprice the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Liquidity tightening could bring valuation adjustment pressure to high-valuation tech stocks.

Yesterday’s drop wiped out Bitcoin’s gains over the past five days.

Still expecting a big range-bound market. Everyone trading knows that there isn’t enough capital left in the crypto market anymore—most of the real big money has all moved into trading in the US stock market.

If you’re only trading in the crypto market, you can only hold on.

This US stock is quite interesting.

Bending Spoons $BSP ’s founder once made a bold statement: “We’re going to build the combination of Berkshire Hathaway and Google!”

They don’t develop breakout products themselves. Instead, they specialize in picking up undervalued opportunities in the market—well-known, user-base-rich but slow-growth, established software companies—such as Evernote, WeTransfer, StreamYard, Vimeo, Airtable, and others.

Their core play is to completely rebuild the funnel with AI:

Acquire app-based software: the moment a deal is closed, they immediately clean out the large redundant original teams, completely removing the burden of history.

Full-stack AI rework: they send their own full-stack engineers to directly rewrite the past bloated, outdated codebase using modern technologies and AI, reducing costs.

Monetize the business model: they fully shift to a strong subscription model and raise prices—boosting cash flow dramatically—then use the money they earn to buy the next target product!

I think this company’s thinking is quite good, especially because it leverages AI to become profitable quickly. It’s worth paying attention to. Also, its stock price has been rising pretty well.

On the 10-day streak of gains on the daily chart ($BTC ), should you chase right now or wait for a pullback?

Conclusion first: I don’t recommend chasing at the current price. The RSI is overbought and there have been 10 consecutive up days; in the short term, a consolidation pullback or a fade after a spike can happen at any time. Chasing here has a very low risk-to-reward ratio.

Key resistance overhead: 69400 - 73500 USD

Wait for a pullback and confirmation before entering. A prudent approach is to wait for price to retrace on decreasing volume without breaking the support level, or for the market to go sideways at higher levels to digest the overbought indicators before entering again.

Key support below: 62680 - 63000 USD

The current market shows the characteristics of “mid-term trend stabilization and recovery, but short-term facing an overbought correction.”

Bullish momentum is strong, but volume is steady/temperate: on the daily chart, the price has continuously pushed higher from the bottom around 57800 USD to 65293 USD with consecutive bullish candles. Also, the SAR stop-loss reversal point has already shifted to the downside of the candlesticks, indicating the short-term downtrend has ended and the bulls have regained control. However, trading volume has not expanded significantly, suggesting a relatively mild, incremental upswing.

Short-term indicators have entered the overbought zone: RSI is at 71.13, already in the overbought range above 70. This implies the short-term price is climbing sharply without an effective reset through consolidation or volatility, and sell pressure from profit-taking is building.

The energy bars flipping back to green suggests the rebound structure at the mid-term level remains healthy.

Why do the same optical module products get different outcomes—Jingji Xuchuang crashes, while Lumentum rises?

Jingji Xuchuang’s stock price has fallen from a high of 1416.88 yuan to 850.05 yuan. Even though its performance and technology are absolutely leading in the industry, when faced with policy expectations such as FCC bans or overseas restrictions, market capital tends to sidestep risk.

Lumentum, with ticker $LITE, however, violently rebounds. The market logic is very simple and blunt: if Chinese optical module manufacturers have limited orders or face compliance risks, then the North American local supply chain represented by Lumentum will inevitably take over the overflow orders and the production capacity shortfall.

After getting trapped, some bloggers develop an ostrich mindset: they believe that giants like NVIDIA are extremely dependent on China’s optical module delivery capability and cost advantages, so the U.S. government wouldn’t truly cut it off.

They think the strong demand from the AI compute revolution can override regulatory rules.

The market is ruthless. History has repeatedly shown that when regulation and legislation are truly implemented—or when clear signals are given—capital markets price assets according to survival and compliance logic.

Capital would rather accept higher procurement costs and slower delivery in the short term than avoid policy black-swan events.

If I had to choose to buy technology stocks,
I would only buy $SMHB , not A-share technology stocks.

Every time it’s different—actually, it’s always the same.

In “The Most Important Thing” by Howard Marks, he wrote a passage:

"Sometimes, when an uptrend or downtrend has lasted a long time and reached extremes, people start saying, 'This time it’s different.' They cite geopolitics, institutional changes, technological revolutions, and behavioral shifts, claiming that old rules are outdated. Then they make investment decisions, inferring that the recent trend will continue. But the subsequent results prove that the old rules still apply, and the cycle begins again. Trees don’t grow into the sky, and very few things go to zero—but most phenomena are cyclical."

Is Professional Trading the Best Job?

Some people think it’s gambling, and others think it’s a cash machine.

Those who truly understand the patterns can experience an extreme kind of freedom: no need to look at your boss’s face, no need to compete based on family background, no need for dinner parties and social chitchat. With just a computer and a smartphone, the market is everything. There’s no midlife crisis at 35, and no complicated human情 and obligations.

Many people say trading is risky.
But look around you carefully: Doesn’t starting a business carry risk? Street-side shops change hands three times a year—hundreds of thousands in franchise fees and renovation costs get dumped in, and you can go broke overnight. Isn’t working a job also risky? Your body gets worn out, companies lay off staff, industries decline, and you can be淘汰 by the market at any time.

Compared to that, the risk in trading is actually the most transparent: if something feels off, you can close your position with a single click, and stop-loss orders can be executed immediately.

Of course, this “meal” is definitely not easy to swallow.

It demands an exceptionally high level of cognition, knowledge, and, most difficult of all, discipline. But compared to constantly nodding and currying favor in real life, being able to survive independently in your room through your own abilities—that freedom is truly priceless.

Naturally, you must also manage risk. If you’re a beginner, you should never directly trade based on someone else’s homework—buying just because you see others calling for price to rise or fall. First, use small amounts of money that absolutely won’t affect your life to experiment. Accumulate costs and gain hands-on experience. And before you’ve built a stable, repeatable trading system, never blindly increase your capital.

$TST After the round ends, the market cap is only $20 million USD

This kind of coin clearly looks like the market maker has complete control. Early is early; you get more. If you see others do a bunch of analysis and then go open futures contracts, you'll end up losing even more yourself.

Actually, as long as Bitcoin holds its ground, $BNB breaks through $600

Next, there will be several waves of altcoins pulling up because these altcoin market makers have already been holding inventory for a year, and they urgently need to sell for profits.

Domestic efforts to crack down on and investigate cryptocurrency trading speculation have started again. I think it will be approached in two ways:

First is OTC. These kinds of methods will lead to severe card freezes for future transfers and withdrawals involving cryptocurrencies. Various payment tools—such as channels that often use U merchants for deposits and withdrawals—will be even more likely to have funds frozen.

Second is publicity. Using platforms like Xiaohongshu, WeChat official accounts, and Douyin to acquire customers, offer customer referrals and commissions, or promote various types of push-stake coins will see intensified enforcement.

If you have the above two types of businesses, or related businesses, you should try to avoid them recently.

Turns out that when I chased highs and got trapped in the market, what I took was “other people’s hype expectations,” and treated it as “the value of an asset.”

If the chips you’re holding are slowly going down and you’re very anxious, I suggest you spend 1 minute reading through this story.

More than ten years ago, during the most feverish period in the fruit market, everyone was chasing the oranges on the trend.

There was an apple tree that, year after year, produced fruit steadily—but its valuation was brutally pushed down from 1,000 yuan to 100 yuan.

Just when everyone was cutting losses furiously and mocking it, an investing elder—who hardly ever made moves—bought all 100 yuan worth of it in.

The logic the elder used was extremely simple:

Break even through liquidation: chop the tree down and sell it as firewood. Just by selling the wood, you can realize 100 yuan.

Cash flow built in: as long as the tree doesn’t die, it can still reliably produce apples worth 10 yuan every year.

The story’s ending is quite dramatic.

After a few years, the market’s sentiment shifted. There were too many oranges, so everyone abandoned them. The orange trees then fell another 90%. The apple concept was once again blown up by the market, and it even went crazy all the way to 5,000 yuan.

The elder exited entirely at 3,000 yuan.

A cost of 100, 30x profit.

Later, someone asked him with regret: “If you waited a bit longer, you could have made more. Won’t you regret selling early?”

The elder waved his hand:

“I'm buying a tree that can bear fruit, not a mirage that people hype up. As for how much it could rise after I exit—that’s a lesson for the next bag holder. It has nothing to do with me anymore.”

$BTC has strong suppression at $65,000; it may be waiting for the <c-1/> Clear Bill to fail before dropping again.

There isn’t enough upward momentum. In the short term, it’s bearish; in the medium term, it’s mainly ranging.

CoinEx exchange founder accused of cheating in China.

According to posts by the original spouse, Hai Fu, on Weibo, as early as 2020, Wu Qinghua, then working in CoinEx’s business team, had been involved in an improper relationship with Yang Haipo.

Hai Fu claims that Wu Qinghua, during the marriage, wildly squandered the couple’s shared finances. Yang Haipo admitted to Hai Fu that he paid for the “kept” arrangement fees through a transfer platform using tokens CET and the stablecoin USDT. The money was used to buy branded luxury goods and high-end jewelry, and he even brought the female business associate back to his home for a family gathering 😂

Isn’t this just the platform boss mixing up platform assets with personal assets?

Using company assets to keep a mistress, deceiving the original spouse with false promises, and then in the crypto world praising decentralization and contract spirit—how hypocritical can you be?

Yang Haipo and the official CoinEx account have not yet issued an official response.

$UNI cryptocurrency scam clones are all trapped positions,

A huge whale sold today 729,015 $UNI for a total of 3 million dollars, and received 1,578 $ETH worth 3 million dollars. The following has images—proof.

If it's a little bit better, it gets smashed; on the other hand, looking at the US stocks market, when you make money, you buy back. Don’t really stay in a cesspool—within the crypto world, it’s only Bitcoin + popular coins that rule

I continue using dual-currency wins to earn a living expense

I choose to sell at $66,000 for 0.8$BTC
If this price is reached, I will sell the Bitcoin and receive cash interest

If Bitcoin does not reach $66,600,
my Bitcoin will not be sold, and BTC will be used as an interest subsidy

I have already earned $600 using this method
At the same time, I will use this method to buy the dip in Bitcoin

I believe that before next March,
Bitcoin will be in a wide trading range
And in October this year, Bitcoin will form a cyclical bottom.

$SNDKB SanDisk has released its earnings report, slightly below expectations

In reality, SanDisk has risen a lot, and the pullback is deeper too; the fundamentals are weaker than Micron.

In this AI-driven cycle, HBM is the biggest beneficiary, and SanDisk is not directly involved in competing for HBM.

The competitive landscape for NAND Flash is more fragmented. Yangtze Memory already has ~13% market share, and it has a higher share on the consumer side, making it more sensitive to weakness in end-market demand.

SanDisk and SK hynix jointly released the HBF standard as a long-term plan, but in the short term it cannot contribute revenue.

1TB SSDs have climbed from about $45 to nearly $90, and consumer sentiment of “can’t afford to buy” is spreading.

If consumer-grade demand experiences a cliff-like drop, even if data center demand remains strong, memory prices may hit their peak earlier.