$SNXX Latest Price 14.47, 24-hour decline 3.469%, funding rate 0.00016178, open interest 1592419.38. Longs are paying.
On the macro side, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recorded by FRED on August 21 is still hovering near long-term highs. Schwab says the stock market bounced in the morning because yields didn’t keep rising, but the weekly trend is still down. In CNBC, Saxo’s strategist put it more directly: if high yields are viewed as fiscal risk or inflation rather than strong U.S. growth, the dollar may not necessarily benefit, and risk assets will be hit first.
My view is that this leg of decline in $SNXX has a macro backdrop; it isn’t the contract itself weakening on its own. The price is falling, yet the funding rate is still positive, which suggests longs aren’t panicking. This structure is the most troublesome: longs have to pay costs every day, and the price still hasn’t moved back up—time is on the shorts’ side.
It’s clear who’s paying the cost. The holders of the long side are paying the shorts 0.00016178, and the open interest of 1592419.38 also hasn’t shown a sharp contraction. As long as the price keeps grinding below 14.47, longs will start to主动减仓, and that de-leveraging then puts additional downward pressure on price.
The strongest counter-evidence is that the stock market in the morning did indeed bounce because yields steadied and rose for a round. If Treasury yields stop making new highs and U.S. stocks continue to repair, $SNXX could rebound as well. This counter-evidence isn’t weak.
But what I care about more is that the funding rate of $SNXX hasn’t turned negative yet. Turning negative is the signal that the shorts are crowded; only then could a rebound potentially appear suddenly. At this stage, any rebound depends on the stock market, not on the contract’s internal structure.
My action is not to catch the falling knife. If the funding rate turns negative and the price is still below 14.47, I would consider testing a small long position, betting on a squeeze of the shorts. If the price reclaims 14.47 and it doesn’t break down again intraday, the bearish thesis would be invalid and those chasing shorts should stop. For now, I’m staying in cash to be cautious, and will keep watching.
People who treat the morning stock-market rebound as a sign of stabilization may be underestimating the reality that the longs in $SNXX are still paying. The selloff hasn’t ended; it just hasn’t accelerated yet.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SNXX
Where do you think this setup is most likely to be wrong?
On the macro side, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recorded by FRED on August 21 is still hovering near long-term highs. Schwab says the stock market bounced in the morning because yields didn’t keep rising, but the weekly trend is still down. In CNBC, Saxo’s strategist put it more directly: if high yields are viewed as fiscal risk or inflation rather than strong U.S. growth, the dollar may not necessarily benefit, and risk assets will be hit first.
My view is that this leg of decline in $SNXX has a macro backdrop; it isn’t the contract itself weakening on its own. The price is falling, yet the funding rate is still positive, which suggests longs aren’t panicking. This structure is the most troublesome: longs have to pay costs every day, and the price still hasn’t moved back up—time is on the shorts’ side.
It’s clear who’s paying the cost. The holders of the long side are paying the shorts 0.00016178, and the open interest of 1592419.38 also hasn’t shown a sharp contraction. As long as the price keeps grinding below 14.47, longs will start to主动减仓, and that de-leveraging then puts additional downward pressure on price.
The strongest counter-evidence is that the stock market in the morning did indeed bounce because yields steadied and rose for a round. If Treasury yields stop making new highs and U.S. stocks continue to repair, $SNXX could rebound as well. This counter-evidence isn’t weak.
But what I care about more is that the funding rate of $SNXX hasn’t turned negative yet. Turning negative is the signal that the shorts are crowded; only then could a rebound potentially appear suddenly. At this stage, any rebound depends on the stock market, not on the contract’s internal structure.
My action is not to catch the falling knife. If the funding rate turns negative and the price is still below 14.47, I would consider testing a small long position, betting on a squeeze of the shorts. If the price reclaims 14.47 and it doesn’t break down again intraday, the bearish thesis would be invalid and those chasing shorts should stop. For now, I’m staying in cash to be cautious, and will keep watching.
People who treat the morning stock-market rebound as a sign of stabilization may be underestimating the reality that the longs in $SNXX are still paying. The selloff hasn’t ended; it just hasn’t accelerated yet.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SNXX
Where do you think this setup is most likely to be wrong?