U.S. Stock Market Session Analysis: The rebound can’t mask a bearish weekly close; liquidity expectations ignite gold and Bitcoin
Last Friday, U.S. stocks finally caught their breath. After halting the streak of declines, the Dow rose by nearly 1%, marking its biggest single-day gain in five months.
But this looks more like position unwinding around monthly options expiration. On the weekly chart, the S&P 500 still fell by 1.43%, ending three straight weeks of gains. The real drama is elsewhere—liquidity expectations have fully lit a spark under gold and Bitcoin.
Key macro points:
Liquidity expectations are the core: The market is now focused on one narrative—that the Treasury will expand long-term bond repurchase facilities, and Bessent has also hinted at possible further increases. This is bearish for the U.S. dollar, but bullish for assets priced in dollars.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is steady around 4.74%. The market is temporarily buying into the “rescue” signals, which provides the foundation for a joint rebound in stocks, crypto, and gold.
Capital flows are sharply polarized: Money is clearly flowing into Bitcoin and gold. Bitcoin surged 24% this week, pushing close to $80,000 intraday, and its market value has even surpassed Meta’s.
Gold also climbed above $4,600 for the third consecutive week. The logic is straightforward: weakening marginal confidence in the U.S. dollar credit alongside expectations of easier liquidity. By contrast, in U.S. equities, aside from defensive sectors such as healthcare and financials, major tech names have been lackluster—Nvidia and Amazon are still falling.
Watch oil prices and geopolitics: After six straight days of gains, oil pulled back for the first time, but tensions in the U.S.–Iran situation remain a sword hanging overhead. The inflation pressure from the surge in diesel prices is real, and it will constrain the Fed’s future room to ease—an overhang in the long run.
At this point, the market is trading a very clear logic: go long on “liquidity beneficiaries” in alternative assets (Bitcoin and gold), while using defensive sectors (healthcare, financials) to manage uncertainty within the stock market.
Tech stocks face overall pressure, and opportunities are likely limited to a few names with strong catalysts. Before the global central bank meetings and Nvidia’s earnings report, the index will likely remain range-bound.
Focus on Bitcoin and gold opportunities after pullbacks, as well as energy-geopolitics beneficiaries such as oil services and defense. Don’t chase the U.S. stock index higher; concentrate positions in hard assets and defensive sectors.#比特币创2023年3月来最强周涨幅 #标普500结束周线连涨 #TRUMP突破3.4美元创3月21日以来新高 $BTC $XAU $ETH
Last Friday, U.S. stocks finally caught their breath. After halting the streak of declines, the Dow rose by nearly 1%, marking its biggest single-day gain in five months.
But this looks more like position unwinding around monthly options expiration. On the weekly chart, the S&P 500 still fell by 1.43%, ending three straight weeks of gains. The real drama is elsewhere—liquidity expectations have fully lit a spark under gold and Bitcoin.
Key macro points:
Liquidity expectations are the core: The market is now focused on one narrative—that the Treasury will expand long-term bond repurchase facilities, and Bessent has also hinted at possible further increases. This is bearish for the U.S. dollar, but bullish for assets priced in dollars.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is steady around 4.74%. The market is temporarily buying into the “rescue” signals, which provides the foundation for a joint rebound in stocks, crypto, and gold.
Capital flows are sharply polarized: Money is clearly flowing into Bitcoin and gold. Bitcoin surged 24% this week, pushing close to $80,000 intraday, and its market value has even surpassed Meta’s.
Gold also climbed above $4,600 for the third consecutive week. The logic is straightforward: weakening marginal confidence in the U.S. dollar credit alongside expectations of easier liquidity. By contrast, in U.S. equities, aside from defensive sectors such as healthcare and financials, major tech names have been lackluster—Nvidia and Amazon are still falling.
Watch oil prices and geopolitics: After six straight days of gains, oil pulled back for the first time, but tensions in the U.S.–Iran situation remain a sword hanging overhead. The inflation pressure from the surge in diesel prices is real, and it will constrain the Fed’s future room to ease—an overhang in the long run.
At this point, the market is trading a very clear logic: go long on “liquidity beneficiaries” in alternative assets (Bitcoin and gold), while using defensive sectors (healthcare, financials) to manage uncertainty within the stock market.
Tech stocks face overall pressure, and opportunities are likely limited to a few names with strong catalysts. Before the global central bank meetings and Nvidia’s earnings report, the index will likely remain range-bound.
Focus on Bitcoin and gold opportunities after pullbacks, as well as energy-geopolitics beneficiaries such as oil services and defense. Don’t chase the U.S. stock index higher; concentrate positions in hard assets and defensive sectors.#比特币创2023年3月来最强周涨幅 #标普500结束周线连涨 #TRUMP突破3.4美元创3月21日以来新高 $BTC $XAU $ETH