Real Bull Market VS Fake Bull Market
In the past few days, there has been a surge at the “Wan Dian” level. Many people, including me, have been joking about the big bull market returning.
But actually, if you look at the blog posts I’ve published these past few days, you’ll have a rough judging standard: without an effective breakout of the 830 level, you can’t define a true reversal.
Since the drop from 126,000, there have already been two rounds of basing and rebound. In each round, the rebound couldn’t break through the previous high. After that, it continued to print new lows.
An old saying from the market: in a bear market, there are more violent rallies; in a bull market, there are more violent sell-offs. Big moves are just the surface—structure is the underlying logic.
Let me repeat it: a real reversal requires two conditions to be met at the same time:
1. Break through the new highs of the previous rebound,
2. At the same time, no longer form lower lows.
If those conditions aren’t met, then “Xing Qing” still belongs to the broader sideways consolidation of a “Daqu” range.
To forecast ahead of “Xing Qing,” you have to wait for the price to fully unfold before calling a reversal—that would be hindsight, you know?
$BTC $ETH #美元跌至三个月低点 #BTC突破7万大关
In the past few days, there has been a surge at the “Wan Dian” level. Many people, including me, have been joking about the big bull market returning.
But actually, if you look at the blog posts I’ve published these past few days, you’ll have a rough judging standard: without an effective breakout of the 830 level, you can’t define a true reversal.
Since the drop from 126,000, there have already been two rounds of basing and rebound. In each round, the rebound couldn’t break through the previous high. After that, it continued to print new lows.
An old saying from the market: in a bear market, there are more violent rallies; in a bull market, there are more violent sell-offs. Big moves are just the surface—structure is the underlying logic.
Let me repeat it: a real reversal requires two conditions to be met at the same time:
1. Break through the new highs of the previous rebound,
2. At the same time, no longer form lower lows.
If those conditions aren’t met, then “Xing Qing” still belongs to the broader sideways consolidation of a “Daqu” range.
To forecast ahead of “Xing Qing,” you have to wait for the price to fully unfold before calling a reversal—that would be hindsight, you know?
$BTC $ETH #美元跌至三个月低点 #BTC突破7万大关