HYPE is currently around 79.3u. In the past 7 days, it’s surged by more than 40%. For that reason, I’m actually not in a hurry to chase it here.
The trend hasn’t turned bad—let me state that clearly. The contract open interest value increased by more than two percentage points over another 7 hours. The quadrant is still bull_strong. Price is above the 20 and 50 lines. On the 4H timeframe, momentum is pointing upward, and the acceleration hasn’t gone out. In the medium-term structure, the bulls are in control—from 55 up to 79. This isn’t a rebound; it’s a trend.
But the issue is with this current leg. When price pushes up to just below the 82.7 high, the buy volume on the active trading side has dropped to only 46%. In the last 7 hours, it also shrank by nearly 10%. Sellers are more proactive than buyers. The fee rate at 0.009% is still positive across all 8 samples, but it has already fallen below the 8-period average eight times, and the basis has tightened quite a bit as well. The chase-high sentiment is cooling down; it doesn’t look like the initial ignition phase anymore.
The spot side isn’t strong enough either. On the order book, the buy wall is 290 lots, while the sell wall is 376 lots—sell pressure is slightly thicker. None of the 5 sampled windows saw net inflows from large orders. Big money hasn’t added here. We have to recognize that. The large players still lean bullish: long positions account for 65%, but the account share over the last 7 hours has fallen by 3%, which suggests some loosening of grip.
So my stance is very clear: I won’t go short (the trend hasn’t broken, and shorting into the top against the trend isn’t worth it). But chasing longs at the current price also isn’t great in terms of risk-reward. It’s just one step away from the prior high. With active sell orders and the cooling fee rate, it indicates that this area likely needs rotation/turnover. Either wait for a pullback to around the moving averages to see if buyers can take over, or wait for volume to help it chew through 82.7, and then follow the momentum. I won’t make a move in the middle.
#hype $HYPE
The trend hasn’t turned bad—let me state that clearly. The contract open interest value increased by more than two percentage points over another 7 hours. The quadrant is still bull_strong. Price is above the 20 and 50 lines. On the 4H timeframe, momentum is pointing upward, and the acceleration hasn’t gone out. In the medium-term structure, the bulls are in control—from 55 up to 79. This isn’t a rebound; it’s a trend.
But the issue is with this current leg. When price pushes up to just below the 82.7 high, the buy volume on the active trading side has dropped to only 46%. In the last 7 hours, it also shrank by nearly 10%. Sellers are more proactive than buyers. The fee rate at 0.009% is still positive across all 8 samples, but it has already fallen below the 8-period average eight times, and the basis has tightened quite a bit as well. The chase-high sentiment is cooling down; it doesn’t look like the initial ignition phase anymore.
The spot side isn’t strong enough either. On the order book, the buy wall is 290 lots, while the sell wall is 376 lots—sell pressure is slightly thicker. None of the 5 sampled windows saw net inflows from large orders. Big money hasn’t added here. We have to recognize that. The large players still lean bullish: long positions account for 65%, but the account share over the last 7 hours has fallen by 3%, which suggests some loosening of grip.
So my stance is very clear: I won’t go short (the trend hasn’t broken, and shorting into the top against the trend isn’t worth it). But chasing longs at the current price also isn’t great in terms of risk-reward. It’s just one step away from the prior high. With active sell orders and the cooling fee rate, it indicates that this area likely needs rotation/turnover. Either wait for a pullback to around the moving averages to see if buyers can take over, or wait for volume to help it chew through 82.7, and then follow the momentum. I won’t make a move in the middle.
#hype $HYPE