Today, trainee Junhong shared me an outlook, and I think it’s worth sharing.
He said, Coach, I don’t agree with your view that “the bulls are here.” This current uptrend won’t be the start of a bull market. It’s more like a big correction rebound, and in the end it will still break below 50,000. His specific reasons were: recently, relevant U.S. legislation has been passed—which is bearish—and it’s also unlikely that more will be passed soon. There’s a high chance that Trump will lose the midterm elections. If the Fed doesn’t raise rates again, before the midterms Trump may stir things up. Also, Bessent “let out a fart after taking off his pants” (i.e., rhetoric/claims amount to nothing): he talks about buying back U.S. Treasuries, and if the U.S. is weakening, that’s the trend—then the arrival of a financial crisis is inevitable. Gold rising is driven by safe-haven demand. Viewed this way, this rally is only a big rebound, and it still has to fall!
Then I described my own experience when the market was in bull and bear phases, including how small bulls appeared in the middle. I added the price range where my prediction suggests a possible turning point, supplementing his view. I pointed at the computer and said: this price range is very likely where a turning point could occur—supporting your thesis and continuing the move. If the big cake drops into the “50s,” that price level is around 900–100.
My views aren’t necessarily all correct, so this is for reference only. I’ll prepare for a bull market, but also adapt as I go and adjust my strategy—because the market won’t stay unchanged in a single pattern.
He said, Coach, I don’t agree with your view that “the bulls are here.” This current uptrend won’t be the start of a bull market. It’s more like a big correction rebound, and in the end it will still break below 50,000. His specific reasons were: recently, relevant U.S. legislation has been passed—which is bearish—and it’s also unlikely that more will be passed soon. There’s a high chance that Trump will lose the midterm elections. If the Fed doesn’t raise rates again, before the midterms Trump may stir things up. Also, Bessent “let out a fart after taking off his pants” (i.e., rhetoric/claims amount to nothing): he talks about buying back U.S. Treasuries, and if the U.S. is weakening, that’s the trend—then the arrival of a financial crisis is inevitable. Gold rising is driven by safe-haven demand. Viewed this way, this rally is only a big rebound, and it still has to fall!
Then I described my own experience when the market was in bull and bear phases, including how small bulls appeared in the middle. I added the price range where my prediction suggests a possible turning point, supplementing his view. I pointed at the computer and said: this price range is very likely where a turning point could occur—supporting your thesis and continuing the move. If the big cake drops into the “50s,” that price level is around 900–100.
My views aren’t necessarily all correct, so this is for reference only. I’ll prepare for a bull market, but also adapt as I go and adjust my strategy—because the market won’t stay unchanged in a single pattern.