Trump, the White House, and the SEC—these continuous moves give the impression that they’re extremely rushed, very impatient, especially Trump’s approach. Is it because he knows in his heart that time is tight, and that the bill this year is very likely to keep being delayed until tomorrow? Didn’t people say the bottom could be possible only in 10–12 months? Why did the rally start in August? Could it be that August is the bottom? The fact is, it’s not that simple. The reasons why we can’t be sure the market bottoms in August are: (1) CLARITY is still stuck in the Senate; the outcome in September is uncertain, and it may become even more politicized after the midterm elections. Delays in full regulatory clarity will keep some institutions on the sidelines. (2) While prices have rebounded, things like trading volume, ETF fund flows, and on-chain behavior by long-term holders have not yet formed the typical “bottom confirmation” signals (for example, a strong reversal following full capitulation). Historically, market bottoms are often accompanied by deeper drawdowns or longer periods of consolidation. So, August itself is very likely just a short-term low point or the starting point of a rebound—not the final cycle bottom. $BTC
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