#美元跌至三个月低点
The U.S. Dollar Index drops to around 98.7, hitting a three-month low. People are starting to lose a bit of confidence in the dollar.
U.S. Treasury yields have surged far too aggressively. The Treasury Department, with its back against the wall, has doubled down on buying back long-term Treasuries. In effect, this is like indirect monetary easing—suddenly, the interest-rate advantage of the dollar isn’t as attractive anymore.
When interest rates fall, money naturally runs out. Everyone is now betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates.
The Fed wants to tighten to fight inflation, but the Treasury—because it can’t afford to pay off those high-interest debts—has no choice but to inject liquidity to save the market. The two sides end up working against each other. The market has seen through this as a forced bailout, and funds quickly regroup to buy gold and cryptocurrencies.
Next, the outlook:
In the short term, everything mainly hinges on the Fed’s stance.
If employment and economic data continue to worsen, the dollar may still probe further down toward 96 to 97. If inflation suddenly rebounds, the dollar could make a modest recovery.
In the medium term, it’s hard for the dollar to regain strength.
The larger the scale of U.S. debt keeps rolling over, the lower overseas buyers’ willingness to step in becomes. Continued dollar weakness is the more likely scenario.
For us, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is smaller—so spending abroad or studying overseas may be more cost-effective. But if you’re earning in U.S. dollars and converting to RMB, it can get a bit awkward. As for gold, as a safe-haven asset, it still has strong support over the medium to long term.
DYOR
The U.S. Dollar Index drops to around 98.7, hitting a three-month low. People are starting to lose a bit of confidence in the dollar.
U.S. Treasury yields have surged far too aggressively. The Treasury Department, with its back against the wall, has doubled down on buying back long-term Treasuries. In effect, this is like indirect monetary easing—suddenly, the interest-rate advantage of the dollar isn’t as attractive anymore.
When interest rates fall, money naturally runs out. Everyone is now betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates.
The Fed wants to tighten to fight inflation, but the Treasury—because it can’t afford to pay off those high-interest debts—has no choice but to inject liquidity to save the market. The two sides end up working against each other. The market has seen through this as a forced bailout, and funds quickly regroup to buy gold and cryptocurrencies.
Next, the outlook:
In the short term, everything mainly hinges on the Fed’s stance.
If employment and economic data continue to worsen, the dollar may still probe further down toward 96 to 97. If inflation suddenly rebounds, the dollar could make a modest recovery.
In the medium term, it’s hard for the dollar to regain strength.
The larger the scale of U.S. debt keeps rolling over, the lower overseas buyers’ willingness to step in becomes. Continued dollar weakness is the more likely scenario.
For us, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is smaller—so spending abroad or studying overseas may be more cost-effective. But if you’re earning in U.S. dollars and converting to RMB, it can get a bit awkward. As for gold, as a safe-haven asset, it still has strong support over the medium to long term.
DYOR