$MRVL single-day rise 9.58%, price 254.4 USD. Perpetual contract funding is 0, open interest is 112724.70. Pushing the price upward means there’s no one at the contract side paying to hold positions.
My view is that this rally is driven more by spot demand running ahead—leverage capital hasn’t really participated. Funding being 0 indicates that both longs and shorts are unwilling to pay in advance; they’re all waiting for the earnings report on August 27. A single source shows the options market pricing a 14% move after the earnings, with expected revenue of 2.71B. Another source’s target price is 250.27; the current price is already above the target, but perpetual funding money isn’t chasing. I wouldn’t treat this structure as a confirmed trend.
The strongest counter-argument is that free cash flow growth turns negative—this comes from a Yahoo summary. If the earnings report confirms it, the spot buying could directly flip and reverse. Another bearish signal is in the CNN summary: Goldman Sachs’ target price of 180, far below the current price, suggesting the sell-side isn’t unified internally.
I’m waiting. If you’re aggressive and want to chase, you need to first see funding turn positive and OI rise in sync—otherwise the more violently it rises, the more I won’t take the trade. For a more conservative approach, wait until after the earnings report when OI and funding move in the same direction.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #MRVL
Where do you think this line of judgment is most likely to be wrong?
My view is that this rally is driven more by spot demand running ahead—leverage capital hasn’t really participated. Funding being 0 indicates that both longs and shorts are unwilling to pay in advance; they’re all waiting for the earnings report on August 27. A single source shows the options market pricing a 14% move after the earnings, with expected revenue of 2.71B. Another source’s target price is 250.27; the current price is already above the target, but perpetual funding money isn’t chasing. I wouldn’t treat this structure as a confirmed trend.
The strongest counter-argument is that free cash flow growth turns negative—this comes from a Yahoo summary. If the earnings report confirms it, the spot buying could directly flip and reverse. Another bearish signal is in the CNN summary: Goldman Sachs’ target price of 180, far below the current price, suggesting the sell-side isn’t unified internally.
I’m waiting. If you’re aggressive and want to chase, you need to first see funding turn positive and OI rise in sync—otherwise the more violently it rises, the more I won’t take the trade. For a more conservative approach, wait until after the earnings report when OI and funding move in the same direction.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #MRVL
Where do you think this line of judgment is most likely to be wrong?