#termmax Don’t get lost in complex formulas about token economics—the core question is actually just one: where does sTMX’s dividends really come from?
@TermMax In the official stated total supply of 1 billion, ecosystem incentives account for 29% all at once. Many people see the expected annualized returns shown on the staking page and think it’s very attractive, but you have to dig deeper: are these staking rewards the real fees extracted from the platform’s matched lending activities, or are the tokens simply minted out of thin air directly from that 29% incentive pool?
This determines the fate of the asset. If it’s the former, it means the net profit generated by the protocol’s lending business can flow back to token holders, forming a healthy demand-supply feedback loop. If it’s the latter, then so-called staking yield is nothing more than diluting today’s principal with future inflation. Once the growth in lending scale can’t keep up with the pace of token releases, the price center of gravity will keep drifting downward.
Even though V2 and multi-chain expansion are running smoothly right now, if the business gets bigger but profits still don’t flow back to token holders, then holding the tokens is basically just doing charity for the ecosystem.
My falsification criteria are very clear: in the first settlement cycle after the TGE, directly check the on-chain financial reports for the proportion of “actual protocol revenue distribution” in total sTMX earnings. If the real fee share is below 40%, and everything is propped up mainly by token emissions, then it shows the self-sustaining logic hasn’t been proven yet—so I would firmly stay on the sidelines regarding the staking target.$NVDAB
@TermMax In the official stated total supply of 1 billion, ecosystem incentives account for 29% all at once. Many people see the expected annualized returns shown on the staking page and think it’s very attractive, but you have to dig deeper: are these staking rewards the real fees extracted from the platform’s matched lending activities, or are the tokens simply minted out of thin air directly from that 29% incentive pool?
This determines the fate of the asset. If it’s the former, it means the net profit generated by the protocol’s lending business can flow back to token holders, forming a healthy demand-supply feedback loop. If it’s the latter, then so-called staking yield is nothing more than diluting today’s principal with future inflation. Once the growth in lending scale can’t keep up with the pace of token releases, the price center of gravity will keep drifting downward.
Even though V2 and multi-chain expansion are running smoothly right now, if the business gets bigger but profits still don’t flow back to token holders, then holding the tokens is basically just doing charity for the ecosystem.
My falsification criteria are very clear: in the first settlement cycle after the TGE, directly check the on-chain financial reports for the proportion of “actual protocol revenue distribution” in total sTMX earnings. If the real fee share is below 40%, and everything is propped up mainly by token emissions, then it shows the self-sustaining logic hasn’t been proven yet—so I would firmly stay on the sidelines regarding the staking target.$NVDAB