The “sweet spot poison pill” of index weights: SpaceX’s $12.4 billion passive buying is about to collide head-on with a flood of 2.3 billion shares set to be unblocked
A “non-fundamental” rally triggered by index rules The wave of buying ahead for SpaceX has little to do with its business prospects. It’s more like a mechanical outcome produced after an index construction rule that few people pay attention to gets triggered. The Nasdaq 100’s quarterly rebalance effective September 21 is expected to raise SpaceX’s weighting from 1.25% to about 1.51%. According to a team led by JPMorgan strategist Min Moon, this adjustment will trigger roughly $12.4 billion in passive net buying. The direct reason for the jump in weighting is that the free-float ratio has risen from less than 10% after the IPO to nearly 30%—after more than 1 billion shares of lock-up stock are released, the index rules automatically amplify the inclusion weight of this mega-cap with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
On September 10, after the PPI data was released, the market increased its bets on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hike at next week’s meeting. Earlier, the first major inflation report for this week showed that within the 12 months through August, U.S. producer prices rose 5.4%. Prior to the release of this report, the market expected the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15–16 meeting with a probability of about 65%. Based on the CME’s federal funds futures contract prices, that probability is now expected to have risen to around 70%. U.S. Treasury yields rose. The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 5.63 basis points to 4.893%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 5.96 basis points to 4.487%. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.3381%, the highest level since 2007.
CZ Says BTC’s Next Bull Run Could Surpass Gold—Is This Call Reliable?
Recently, CZ said in an interview:
"Bitcoin’s next bull market could surpass gold’s market cap, becoming the world’s largest store of value."
How much is gold’s market cap? Roughly $17 trillion.
BTC is currently $1.5 trillion—so that means it would need to rise more than 10x.
The price would likely need to reach around $800,000 per coin.
Sounds pretty outrageous, right?
But if you look back:
In 2017, when people said BTC could reach $10,000, no one believed it. In 2020, when people said BTC could reach $100,000, no one believed it. And now, when people say it could reach $800,000, nobody believes it again…
Of course, when CZ says “could,” he doesn’t mean “will for sure.”
And he’s talking about the “next bull market,” not “this year.”
My personal view is:
Surpassing gold isn’t impossible, but it’s not something that can be completed in the next cycle.
It’s like saying, “This kid might grow to two meters tall in the future”—
It’s theoretically possible, but there are several stages of development in between.
For BTC to surpass gold, it needs three conditions:
Institutional comprehensive allocation—right now, ETFs are only just getting started; pensions and sovereign wealth funds are the real bulk. Clear regulatory framework—America, the EU, and China all need明确框架. Intergenerational shift in understanding—young people buying BTC more than buying gold is a matter of time.
With these three conditions, the first is already happening, the second is underway, and the third needs time.
So CZ’s direction is correct, but the timing may be a bit optimistic.
It’s like a weather forecast says it will rain tomorrow, but the rain falls the day after instead.
I’ve put together a “BTC Market Cap Surpasses Gold Roadmap,”
including key time milestones, catalyst events, and price projections.
Come to my chat room and type “gold” to get it.
Do you think BTC can surpass gold within your lifetime? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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$ZEC $SOL $BNB Recently, the US stock market has basically been a dead pond—no energy or momentum. Yesterday, all three major indexes closed lower across the board. It looks like a simple pullback at first glance, but what really matters is where the money is going. At the market’s foundation, trading logic is undergoing a major shift.💥
Once oil prices firmly hold above 100, inflation pressure will rise again—giving the Federal Reserve a stronger pretext to keep hiking rates. As long as rate-hike expectations heat up and liquidity tightens, the crypto market will definitely feel the pressure too.💥
Previously, the market was driven forward by AI-related hot themes. Now, funds are taking priority and focusing on macro data like inflation and oil prices. Money is shifting to risk avoidance instead of blindly chasing high-risk assets. For coins like BTC and ETH, it’s therefore hard to sustain a continuous rally. Choppy, back-and-forth price action will become the norm.💥
Fellow retail traders, don’t keep using old ways of trading. Don’t assume you can just go all-in simply because it’s a bull market. Once the macro wind changes, needle-like spikes through the chart will happen more frequently. Keep leverage under control—don’t rush in just because you see a small rebound.💥
Right now, the priority is to stay on the sidelines, watch more and move less. Keep an eye on oil prices and Fed-related news. The market logic has already changed—old experience is more likely to get you into a big pitfall. Preserving capital comes first.💥#原油涨至7月来最高 #灰度ZcashETF资产突破5亿美元 #美国银行集团完成USBDC稳定币试点
BTC is holding near $79K as traders watch the next breakout. $BTC is currently around $79.2K, with the $82K–$83K resistance zone remaining important. A strong break above this area could improve bullish momentum, while losing the $78.7K support could bring more downside pressure.
1️⃣ **Follow MAHI BNB** ✅ 2️⃣ **Like & Comment “BTC”** ✅ 3️⃣ **Repost This Post** 🔄✅ 4️⃣ **Stay Tuned for the Next Gift 🎁🧧** ✅
For now, volume + price action are key. Stay patient and manage risk. 📊
Samsung increases investment in Apple foldable iPhone Duo panel supply
Samsung Display has drawn up a new business plan, projecting a substantial increase in the number of foldable OLED panels it will supply to Apple next year, as well as OLED panels for iPads. Under the plan, the supply target for foldable OLED panels will rise from 8 million units this year by 87.5% to 15 million units next year; the iPad OLED panel supply target will increase from 2 million units to 9 million units.
#灰度ZcashETF资产突破5亿美元 9月15日Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty stated at a blockchain seminar in Wyoming that September 15 will serve as a key indicator of the prospects for the CLARITY Act—on that day, the Senate will hold its first procedural vote, and the legislation can move forward only with the support of 60 votes. Alderoty said that if the bill fails, the SEC and the CFTC will continue to advance their respective rulemaking, and he hopes the bill can pass. Citing research data from the National Crypto Association, he warned that if the legislation cannot be passed, the United States could push 232,000 crypto-related jobs and $55 billion in economic activity overseas. On the same day, the SEC proposed a new rule titled “Regulation Crypto Assets,” providing an exemption pathway for digital asset financing.$BNB
Bitcoin’s rebound hides a trap: big players are collectively exiting. What should you do next?
Many people are confused right now. Bitcoin is clearly rebounding—but why are the top whales quietly distributing and leaving? At this moment, should you hold, buy the dip, or take profit? This piece lays out the future timing, the risk turning point, and the trading plan in one go. Read it carefully to avoid missing out or getting stuck and losing on both ends!
1. From the technical chart, it’s clearly visible that Bitcoin’s daily chart has already formed a death cross structure. Bullish momentum has been steadily exhausted, and the weakness of the uptrend has appeared. This current second surge and rebound is not the start of a new trend—it's simply short-term positive sentiment driven by the market front-running the decision on the crypto bill.
Here’s the key reminder for everyone: at this stage, you must absolutely not chase longs! If you still hold long positions, take the chance during this rally to close at higher levels and book profits. Don’t get greedy and bet on a tail-end move.
2. Combining the time cycles and market rhythm, the prediction is: around September 15th, Bitcoin will begin a two-week round of pullback and washing. The pullback window will continue until the end of September. After this deeper pullback finishes, there will be a very high-quality opportunity to set up long positions (dip-buying) for this cycle.
There are two position strategies to distinguish: For long-term spot positions, you can patiently hold and keep the bigger picture—hold through to the end of this bull cycle. But for leveraged contract long positions, since they’ve already captured a big wave of profits, you must protect your gains and take profits—don’t let floating profit turn into floating loss.
3. Now let’s talk about the macro key that many people tend to overlook: international oil prices are still surging. The time left for the U.S. side to adjust policy is limited. The probability of subsequent policy cooling and active market “sell-offs” continues to rise.
If oil prices crash and correct sharply, it will directly drive the U.S. stock market, and liquidity in the crypto market will also passively loosen. That can trigger a short-term rally. So now the market has two-way uncertainty: the crypto bill’s positive news around September 15th will most likely be “good news already priced in,” and the move may fade as the行情兑现 (the market executes expectations and pulls back). But the rebound driven by oil-price linkage is completely random in timing.
The bull market is still ongoing—real big opportunities are still ahead. Our only core strategy right now is: protect your existing profits, avoid the risk of a short-term pullback, and wait for the bottom.
Get the rhythm right, and the bull market can double!
5 U buys America’s seven tech giants—dreams you never thought of
Binance launches a US stock recurring buy feature, supporting 100 stocks and ETFs. On September 10, Binance announced the launch of the Stock Recurring Buy (stock investment plan) feature, which allows eligible users to automatically purchase specified stocks and ETFs on a fixed cycle without needing to place orders manually each time. The feature went live on September 10. Currently, it supports 100 stocks and ETFs, including Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Coinbase, Robinhood, as well as popular ETFs such as SPY, QQQ, and VOO. Users can choose one or multiple stocks within the same recurring investment plan.
☀️ Dawn arrives, ushering in a peaceful mindset to begin today’s market watch 🍃
Market fluctuations are normal. You don’t need to rush into positions with predetermined expectations 📊. The wisdom of trading lies in knowing how to wait for high-quality opportunities and restraining blind impulsiveness 🕊️. Stay committed to independent thinking, don’t let market noise carry you away, and adhere to your established risk-control rules ✨. Continuously refine your understanding over time—time will reward every ounce of rationality and patience 💎. Wishing all fellow travelers a calm, orderly, steady journey forward 🌿
The market rises and falls in cycles—there’s no need to obsess over capturing every swing📊。 The core of trading is knowing how to restrain impulsiveness, and keeping the rhythm that belongs to you🕊️。 Block out the chaos and noise in the market; don’t follow the crowd, don’t blindly follow trends✨。 Keep refining your understanding, and patiently wait for high-quality opportunities—the time won’t disappoint those who quiet their mind and settle in💎。 Wishing all fellow travelers—stay true to yourself, and move forward steadily🌌 Follow me and answer 1 to get double the red packets🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧 #原油涨至7月来最高
The autumn sky is exceptionally high and clear. With a gentle breeze and light wind, the sunlight becomes softer and no longer burns. As the autumn wind slowly blows, the leaves gradually put on new clothes: ginkgo leaves spread across the ground in a blanket of gold, maple leaves blaze into a sea of red, and plane tree leaves fall one by one in steady murmurs—like fluttering butterflies—landing on the fallen leaves with a rustling sound.
In the hills and countryside, the layered forests are dyed in full splendor, with yellows and reds of varying depths blending and glowing across the mountains. In the fields, waves of ripening rice roll on, fruits and melons hang laden on the branches, and the air carries a faint sweet scent of grains and osmanthus. The lake water is clear, reeds sway with the wind, and now and then a line of wild geese flies south. Everywhere is a picture of maturity and peacefulness.
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