At the end of June to the beginning of July, if you weren’t willing to buy any spot at all, then it’s no longer possible to get another chance to buy BTC/ETH/SOL at the June lows. Especially SOL: by late June, I had already predicted it would be this round’s lowest point. The basis for that judgment was this—when BTC pulled back to 57,750, SOL not only didn’t make a new low, but the low it retraced to was actually about 4 percentage points higher than 60. From this, I concluded that SOL’s entire pullback was a “flooring” around 60.
Some people say: If you believe in the bear-market cycle that comes once every four years, then this shouldn’t be the bottom now. People who have that kind of thought will, without exception, end up being doomed to chase after price increases and highs. At the tail end of every bear market, the final wave is always the smallest, with an amplitude of about 12%. Do the math yourself: even if BTC rebounds and tops out at 77,000, and then it pulls back 12%, that’s at most a drop of 8,000 points. As for SOL, even if it stretches all the way in the 92–97 range and, worst case, pulls back 20%, the lowest point would still be around 77.
So no matter what, you will never have a chance to bottom-fish the June prices again. Because when BTC pulled back from 82,800 in mid-May, it could still test down to 60,000—that was because the fast and slow lines were still hanging in the air, as if you were jumping down from a five-story building. But now you’re already on the ground—how could you possibly drill a hole and go underground?
Some people say: If you believe in the bear-market cycle that comes once every four years, then this shouldn’t be the bottom now. People who have that kind of thought will, without exception, end up being doomed to chase after price increases and highs. At the tail end of every bear market, the final wave is always the smallest, with an amplitude of about 12%. Do the math yourself: even if BTC rebounds and tops out at 77,000, and then it pulls back 12%, that’s at most a drop of 8,000 points. As for SOL, even if it stretches all the way in the 92–97 range and, worst case, pulls back 20%, the lowest point would still be around 77.
So no matter what, you will never have a chance to bottom-fish the June prices again. Because when BTC pulled back from 82,800 in mid-May, it could still test down to 60,000—that was because the fast and slow lines were still hanging in the air, as if you were jumping down from a five-story building. But now you’re already on the ground—how could you possibly drill a hole and go underground?