BTW now around 0.43—the daily candle from yesterday was really fierce. During the session it directly spiked down to 0.26 and then bounced back, wildly up and down, shaking people out over and over.
First, the conclusion on this level: don’t chase. The issue isn’t whether it’s up or not—it’s where the money for this rebound is coming from. On the spot side, there are no net inflows from big orders at all; the proportion of aggressive buy orders is also not even 50%, and it’s been shrinking for seven hours—so the push is mainly propped up by the futures positions, not by real, solid buying.
The futures side is the key. The funding rate has been sampled 8 times in a row and all are positive, and the current level is still above the average—longs are essentially paying to hold. Meanwhile, open interest increased another 9% in a day, but volume hasn’t kept up; positions are piling up first. Even whales’ positioning is one-sidedly leaning long—more than 60%. This kind of crowded trade isn’t a positive signal; it’s a risk. Once the capital support doesn’t follow through, volatility will only be amplified.
And the level itself is awkward. There’s still more than 40% distance to the all-time high of 0.73. After experiencing a violent wick-drop from 0.73 to 0.26, this rebound looks more like an oversold repair. The 4-hour momentum also reads as fading—not a new trend. On top of that, the circulating supply ratio is only 27%, and later the chips will gradually be released, which remains a drag on price.
So my stance: wait and watch. Don’t go long to chase the rebound. And if it breaks down, don’t rush to short either. The low at 0.26 was just made; for now, short-term bulls are still defending. After such intense volatility, the best play is to let the dust settle for a bit—wait until the leverage has digested enough before taking action.
#btw $BTW
First, the conclusion on this level: don’t chase. The issue isn’t whether it’s up or not—it’s where the money for this rebound is coming from. On the spot side, there are no net inflows from big orders at all; the proportion of aggressive buy orders is also not even 50%, and it’s been shrinking for seven hours—so the push is mainly propped up by the futures positions, not by real, solid buying.
The futures side is the key. The funding rate has been sampled 8 times in a row and all are positive, and the current level is still above the average—longs are essentially paying to hold. Meanwhile, open interest increased another 9% in a day, but volume hasn’t kept up; positions are piling up first. Even whales’ positioning is one-sidedly leaning long—more than 60%. This kind of crowded trade isn’t a positive signal; it’s a risk. Once the capital support doesn’t follow through, volatility will only be amplified.
And the level itself is awkward. There’s still more than 40% distance to the all-time high of 0.73. After experiencing a violent wick-drop from 0.73 to 0.26, this rebound looks more like an oversold repair. The 4-hour momentum also reads as fading—not a new trend. On top of that, the circulating supply ratio is only 27%, and later the chips will gradually be released, which remains a drag on price.
So my stance: wait and watch. Don’t go long to chase the rebound. And if it breaks down, don’t rush to short either. The low at 0.26 was just made; for now, short-term bulls are still defending. After such intense volatility, the best play is to let the dust settle for a bit—wait until the leverage has digested enough before taking action.
#btw $BTW