3.19 billion shares unlocked sends SpaceX back below its IPO price: SPCXB tokenized stock slides in tandem, with Wall Street target prices ranging from $100 to $300

In the early hours of August 21 Beijing time, SpaceX (SPCX) fell to $131.86, down 6% on the day, breaking below the $135 IPO offering price for the first time since listing in June (edgen 8/20 기준). The trigger is clear: about 319 million shares held by employees and early investors were approved for trading on August 20—marking the second unlock since going public. Tokenized shares of SPCXB on Binance also came under pressure. The investing.com Hong Kong-stock version snapshot showed $126.27, down 4.12%; CryptoRank reported $135.69, down 1.33%; and Coinstats reported $127.25 (snapshots taken at different times across platforms, shown in parallel). Against the backdrop of BTC nearing $73,000, this "stock token" headed in the opposite direction.

I. How big is this unlock?

319 million shares are equivalent to 49.9% of the June IPO issuance of 638.9 million shares, and 2.4% of SpaceX’s total outstanding shares of 1.318 billion (edgen 8/20 basis). Estimated from the intraday decline on that day, about $103 billion in market value was erased in the unlocked shares (edgen 8/20 basis). The key supply pressure is not about the overall amount: founder Elon Musk’s 642 million shares are locked until June 2027, so only early investors and employee holdings are freely tradable in this round.

On the trading level, selling pressure didn’t fully dissipate: on the afternoon of 8/20, trading volume was about 83.2 million shares, below the 10-day average of 143.7 million shares (edgen 8/20 basis). After breaking below the issue price, $135 became the rebound resistance level that traders reference.

Compared with the broader crypto market in the same time window: Coin360 showed that on the morning of 8/21 BTC was $72,730, up 5.05%, and XRP was $1.2589, up 13.88% (digitaltoday 8/21 paraphrased basis). SPCXB’s pricing anchor is the U.S. stock market, so crypto sentiment has limited impact on it. It moves in the opposite direction of the broader market—this characteristic creates both opportunities and risks during the 24-hour trading period (analysis basis).

II. Two unlock rounds lead to two different outcomes

The first unlock round on August 6 was larger: about 911.5 million shares were approved for trading, and the stock price rose 6.1% on the day instead (edgen 8/20 basis). From the first round through Wednesday’s close, SPCXB’s cumulative gain was 31%, with an intraday high of $149.80 (ilidea cited 8/20 basis). Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, noted that $150 is a key resistance level: options traders have been continuously selling call options at the strike price of $150 or higher, limiting upside (Cointelegraph CN 8/20 basis).

The two outcomes were opposite. The market’s explanation mainly focuses on two points: before the first round of unlock, share-price expectations were lower, and buy-side demand absorbed the supply early; in this round, the timing coincided with the options-suppressed zone near $150, compounded by expectations for a subsequent larger-scale unlock (analysis basis; supported by edgen/SpotGamma data).

Sector linkages were also visible that day: Rocket Lab fell 4% to $72.67, with no company-specific catalyst; Procure Space ETF fell 2% to $45.54, yet was still up 17% year to date (edgen 8/20 basis). SpaceX’s unlock day became the risk-pricing window for the space sector.

III. There are still three more batches ahead

Supply pressure is not over. The next batch is about 319 million shares expiring on September 9, with the same scale as this one; about 1.3 billion shares are tied to the third-quarter earnings report, expected to be released in early November; in December, there is also a 180-day lock-up expiry, with a larger scale than this round (edgen 8/20 basis). Analyst Ed Elson believes that comparing unlock supply with fundamentals is the key factor determining whether the stock moves above or below $135 (aastocks 8/20 paraphrased basis).

IV. Wall Street’s price targets range from 100 to 300

For the same company, the target prices issued by institutions vary enormously. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas set a 12-month target price of $300, implying about 127% upside from the 8/20 close, and said SpaceX is a “potential generation-level compounding company”; DZ Bank’s Markus Leistner, covering the stock for the first time the same day, issued a sell rating with a $100 target price, warning of a “valuation orbit crash risk.” UBS’s John Hodulik is rated Buy with a $210 target price; Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter is Neutral with a $140 target price (edgen 8/20 basis). A consensus of 35 analysts calls for Buy, with an average target price of $222.73, implying a 59.5% premium to the current price (edgen 8/20 basis).

The root of the disagreement lies in the match between valuation and growth. In the second quarter, revenue was $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year; within that, AI revenue was $2.56 billion, up 247.5% year over year. The company’s net loss was $541 million, with a loss per share of $0.09, narrower than analysts’ expected loss per share of $0.21. Capital expenditures were $18.4 billion, about 2.4 times quarterly revenue; $15.8 billion of that went to AI infrastructure (edgen 8/20 basis). High-speed growth corresponds to high capital consumption—each side of analysts focuses on a different end of the spectrum. Sell ratings appeared on the unlock day, suggesting some institutions treat supply pressure as part of valuation risk (analysis basis).

V. SPCXB: How should we view the tokenized version?

SPCXB is a bStocks tokenized security launched by Binance on June 12, trading against SPCXB/USDT. It is issued by BTECH Holdings Limited (ADGM). Each token corresponds to the underlying shares held by the issuer at a U.S.-regulated broker (Binance announcement/MyToken 8/20 basis). At launch, it came with a zero maker fee promotion and automated trading tools. The promotion ran through the end of August. Binance has recently continued expanding its lineup of tokenized stock products (crypto.news/followin June–August basis). On August 18, Binance Market News reported SPCXB at $143.79, up 1.45% (Binance Square 8/18 basis). After that, as SPCX fell below the IPO price, SPCXB also pulled back into the $126–$136 range (investing/CryptoRank/Coinstats 8/21 multiple snapshots basis). On-chain data platform DefiLlama shows the token’s market cap is about $89 million (DefiLlama 8/21 basis).

For traders, the price spread between SPCXB and SPCX, as well as the token’s discount/premium versus the underlying shares, are observation points for arbitrage opportunities and sentiment (analysis basis). Tokenized stocks extend U.S. stock trading hours to 24 hours, but they also carry the same types of U.S. market events—such as unlocks and options suppression—directly into the crypto order book. SPCXB has been live for just over two months, and liquidity is far lower than that of the underlying U.S. stock itself, so discount/premium fluctuations are larger (analysis basis).

VI. Risks and citation bases

1. Different price bases: SPCXB $126.27/$135.69/$127.25 come from three platforms—investing.com (Hong Kong stock edition), CryptoRank, and Coinstats. Snapshot times differ, so they are listed side by side in the main text. SPCXB’s close of $131.86 also differs in timing versus its intraday low of $130.39 and some media’s intraday claim of “down 4% to $134”;

2. The unlock scales on September 9 and in November and December are derived from the official lock-up schedule projections (edgen basis). The actual sell volume depends on decisions by the holders;

3. “Options suppression limits upside” is based on SpotGamma data and analysis basis. Analysts’ target prices represent institutional views and do not constitute a unified expectation;

4. Binance’s bStocks service is limited by laws in its jurisdictions; conversion of tokens into the underlying securities follows Binance rules.

5. SPCXB prices across multiple platforms in the $126–$136 range come from different snapshots and may differ from the underlying SPCX spot’s discount/premium, so it does not constitute an exact like-for-like comparison.

Summary

SpaceX has shown two different relationships between supply and price through two unlock rounds: on August 6, when 900 million shares unlocked, the share price rose; on August 20, when 319 million shares unlocked, the stock fell below the issue price. The next batch arrives on September 9, and there are even larger ones in November and December. The contest around $135—above or below—is the observation window for the next two months. Will you buy SPCXB below the IPO price, or wait for the second batch to land in September?

$SPCXB $BTC

#SpaceX #SPCXB #代币化股票 #RWA #Stock unlock

The above content does not constitute investment advice