Today, the crypto market surged sharply. In just one day, the short positions accumulated over the past few months were liquidated in a single wave. The entire internet saw $3.0 billion in liquidations.
The most direct reason is Trump’s crypto remarks today, but what’s truly important is that someone finally stepped in on the U.S. Treasury market.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that its long-term Treasury repurchase program will be at least doubled:
The per-transaction buyback cap will be raised from $2.0 billion to at least $4.0 billion.
Primarily targeting long-term Treasury bonds with maturities of 10–30 years, starting on September 9.
Why did the market react so strongly?
Because recently, it hasn’t been only wars, inflation, or expectations of rate cuts weighing on global risk assets. What’s been truly pressing them down is that long-term Treasury yields have been too high.
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury surged to around 5.3% at one point, nearing the highest levels since 2007.
When risk-free yields can offer about 5%, why would funds still take the risk to buy stocks or BTC?
So today’s logic is actually quite simple:
Increase long-term Treasury buybacks → bond prices rise → Treasury yields fall → institutional risk appetite rebounds → stocks, gold, and BTC all rally together.
Crypto surged especially hard today, and there’s a second layer of reasons:
Short-squeeze.
BTC briefly reclaimed the $70,000 level. ETH saw even larger gains. Then, a large number of short positions were forced to close, which further pushed the price higher.
Next, we need to see whether the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields can continue to fall.
If long-end yields keep declining, this risk-asset rebound may still have room to run.
If Treasuries are sold off again and yields spike higher once more, then today’s big bullish candle could very likely be only a liquidity-driven rebound.
Right now, the most important candlestick in the entire market is on Treasuries.
#BTC突破$72000
$BTC
The most direct reason is Trump’s crypto remarks today, but what’s truly important is that someone finally stepped in on the U.S. Treasury market.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that its long-term Treasury repurchase program will be at least doubled:
The per-transaction buyback cap will be raised from $2.0 billion to at least $4.0 billion.
Primarily targeting long-term Treasury bonds with maturities of 10–30 years, starting on September 9.
Why did the market react so strongly?
Because recently, it hasn’t been only wars, inflation, or expectations of rate cuts weighing on global risk assets. What’s been truly pressing them down is that long-term Treasury yields have been too high.
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury surged to around 5.3% at one point, nearing the highest levels since 2007.
When risk-free yields can offer about 5%, why would funds still take the risk to buy stocks or BTC?
So today’s logic is actually quite simple:
Increase long-term Treasury buybacks → bond prices rise → Treasury yields fall → institutional risk appetite rebounds → stocks, gold, and BTC all rally together.
Crypto surged especially hard today, and there’s a second layer of reasons:
Short-squeeze.
BTC briefly reclaimed the $70,000 level. ETH saw even larger gains. Then, a large number of short positions were forced to close, which further pushed the price higher.
Next, we need to see whether the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields can continue to fall.
If long-end yields keep declining, this risk-asset rebound may still have room to run.
If Treasuries are sold off again and yields spike higher once more, then today’s big bullish candle could very likely be only a liquidity-driven rebound.
Right now, the most important candlestick in the entire market is on Treasuries.
#BTC突破$72000
$BTC
