This round of encryption moves in the opposite direction of U.S. stocks. It’s not a decoupling fairy tale—it’s that the two sides aren’t in the same cycle.
What’s driving U.S. stocks higher is AI earnings: chips, compute power, orders on the books, earnings reports—capital goes there first. Crypto has no cash flow. As long as interest rates don’t fall and long-term bond yields remain high, the cost of holding is pushed up. More importantly, Bitcoin topped out in October 2025; after that, it starts deleveraging on its own: liquidations in derivatives positions and the ETF shifting from accumulating to distributing—basically re-smashing the previous round of buying back into the market. After U.S. stocks drop that day, they can repair thanks to profits; crypto doesn’t have that kind of cushion.
So it looks like the relationship is inverse: one rides a profits-driven bull run, the other is in a bearish segment after a top. When correlation falls to near zero, it only means that for now Bitcoin is priced mainly by its own capital and leverage—not that it will permanently split off. Only when liquidity loosens again, or when AI frees up risk budget, might the two sides move in the same direction once more.
$BTC
$ETH
What’s driving U.S. stocks higher is AI earnings: chips, compute power, orders on the books, earnings reports—capital goes there first. Crypto has no cash flow. As long as interest rates don’t fall and long-term bond yields remain high, the cost of holding is pushed up. More importantly, Bitcoin topped out in October 2025; after that, it starts deleveraging on its own: liquidations in derivatives positions and the ETF shifting from accumulating to distributing—basically re-smashing the previous round of buying back into the market. After U.S. stocks drop that day, they can repair thanks to profits; crypto doesn’t have that kind of cushion.
So it looks like the relationship is inverse: one rides a profits-driven bull run, the other is in a bearish segment after a top. When correlation falls to near zero, it only means that for now Bitcoin is priced mainly by its own capital and leverage—not that it will permanently split off. Only when liquidity loosens again, or when AI frees up risk budget, might the two sides move in the same direction once more.
$BTC
$ETH