Bitcoin, continue to follow our plan. Don’t be too nervous.
Wait for a big rebound, then sell the spot holdings, and be patient for the final round of opportunities to short.
The market I know best is finally no longer lying flat.
Not long ago, Bitcoin was almost ignored by retail traders—there were even plenty of people who added shorts at over 60,000.
Looking back at the start of this rebound, it began when MicroStrategy’s stock price and the market value of its held coins became decoupled in June.
At that time, even STRC was mistakenly sold off, dropping to around the low 70s.
When the market was in severe panic, and meanwhile we also saw Bitcoin ETFs start turning toward net inflows, that’s when I kept getting more optimistic about the rebound.
According to the original plan, after continuing to rebound, I may execute the last wave of shorts in the bear market.
But here’s what to注意:
“Most people are likely to get knocked out at this position.”
Whether from a human nature perspective or from historical patterns,
shorting tends to build momentum and habit, and when you execute that final wave, it’s usually done with extra force.
In the end, it becomes a stubborn head-short, and the obsession grows very deep.
I set up new short orders around above 70,000, but they only account for 5% of my position.
As you get closer to the tail end of the bear market, you need to be even more cautious and prioritize safety.
If the market reverses, you can always turn around at any time.
Right now, I believe the probability of reversing from here into a bull market is not high.
Especially with this kind of pump, it usually causes retail traders to miss the train and feel FOMO anxiety.
All a market maker has to do at this point is continue releasing good news, and then slowly pull the market up while dragging the ladder up for everyone.
Most likely, many people still won’t be able to stand it and will just chase in directly.
Let’s be careful and cautious!$BTC
Wait for a big rebound, then sell the spot holdings, and be patient for the final round of opportunities to short.
The market I know best is finally no longer lying flat.
Not long ago, Bitcoin was almost ignored by retail traders—there were even plenty of people who added shorts at over 60,000.
Looking back at the start of this rebound, it began when MicroStrategy’s stock price and the market value of its held coins became decoupled in June.
At that time, even STRC was mistakenly sold off, dropping to around the low 70s.
When the market was in severe panic, and meanwhile we also saw Bitcoin ETFs start turning toward net inflows, that’s when I kept getting more optimistic about the rebound.
According to the original plan, after continuing to rebound, I may execute the last wave of shorts in the bear market.
But here’s what to注意:
“Most people are likely to get knocked out at this position.”
Whether from a human nature perspective or from historical patterns,
shorting tends to build momentum and habit, and when you execute that final wave, it’s usually done with extra force.
In the end, it becomes a stubborn head-short, and the obsession grows very deep.
I set up new short orders around above 70,000, but they only account for 5% of my position.
As you get closer to the tail end of the bear market, you need to be even more cautious and prioritize safety.
If the market reverses, you can always turn around at any time.
Right now, I believe the probability of reversing from here into a bull market is not high.
Especially with this kind of pump, it usually causes retail traders to miss the train and feel FOMO anxiety.
All a market maker has to do at this point is continue releasing good news, and then slowly pull the market up while dragging the ladder up for everyone.
Most likely, many people still won’t be able to stand it and will just chase in directly.
Let’s be careful and cautious!$BTC