On August 19, two things happened at the same time—both were more positive than market expectations.
FOMC minutes: Three dissenting commissioners’ identities were confirmed—Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan—who voted in favor of a rate hike at the July 28–29 meeting. The minutes show that the overall committee discussed strong productivity growth driven by AI-related investment, which is the basis for the doves’ stance—productivity gains can support stronger economic growth without exacerbating inflation.
Market interpretation is mildly bullish; the probability of no rate hike in September has risen to about 72%.
White House crypto meeting: Trump, crypto industry executives, leaders from Wall Street, SEC Chair Atkins, and CFTC Chair Selig were all in attendance—this is the highest-spec crypto-focused meeting this year at the regulatory level, discussing the CLARITY Act and the SEC–CFTC joint rulemaking proposal. The lineup indicates that the White House is treating regulatory advancement as a priority—this is not just signaling, but coordinating action.
The impact of the two developments shows up directly in fund flows: on August 18, BTC ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $298 million. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed $160 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC contributed $112 million, reversing the net outflows from the prior three days.
The probability of a September rate hike fell from 48% to 28%. Institutions immediately used capital to vote after the worst-case expectations were removed—this is the clearest positive signal of the week.
At Jackson Hole from August 27–29, Warsh’s speech will be the next pricing event. But judging from the direction of these two developments, both the macro and regulatory tracks are moving in a favorable direction.
Have you adjusted your positions because of these two signals? Tell us.
$BTC
$ETH
FOMC minutes: Three dissenting commissioners’ identities were confirmed—Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan—who voted in favor of a rate hike at the July 28–29 meeting. The minutes show that the overall committee discussed strong productivity growth driven by AI-related investment, which is the basis for the doves’ stance—productivity gains can support stronger economic growth without exacerbating inflation.
Market interpretation is mildly bullish; the probability of no rate hike in September has risen to about 72%.
White House crypto meeting: Trump, crypto industry executives, leaders from Wall Street, SEC Chair Atkins, and CFTC Chair Selig were all in attendance—this is the highest-spec crypto-focused meeting this year at the regulatory level, discussing the CLARITY Act and the SEC–CFTC joint rulemaking proposal. The lineup indicates that the White House is treating regulatory advancement as a priority—this is not just signaling, but coordinating action.
The impact of the two developments shows up directly in fund flows: on August 18, BTC ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $298 million. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed $160 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC contributed $112 million, reversing the net outflows from the prior three days.
The probability of a September rate hike fell from 48% to 28%. Institutions immediately used capital to vote after the worst-case expectations were removed—this is the clearest positive signal of the week.
At Jackson Hole from August 27–29, Warsh’s speech will be the next pricing event. But judging from the direction of these two developments, both the macro and regulatory tracks are moving in a favorable direction.
Have you adjusted your positions because of these two signals? Tell us.
$BTC
$ETH
