$ETH $BOME $RE At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve will drop the biggest “bomb” of the week!
Before the market opened on August 19, overseas markets had already sent positive signals—the three major U.S. stock index futures all turned higher, storage chip stocks broadly rose, and SK Hynix once surged 6%. Major European indexes mostly rose, U.S. Treasury yields fell rapidly, and gold and silver strengthened.
The core backdrop for this rebound in sentiment is the confidence boost from Goldman Sachs’ latest call: Goldman believes the Fed is highly likely not to raise rates in September. Combined with U.S. CPI and PPI for July both coming in weaker than expected, market worries about the risk of another rate hike have clearly cooled.
But what will truly determine the direction is tonight’s 2 a.m. release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the July monetary policy meeting. At that July rate-setting meeting, three officials argued for a rate hike, and the internal divergence within the Fed is far greater than the market imagined.
Traders currently price the probability of a Fed rate hike in September at only about 30%, but if this set of minutes reveals a hawkish signal, that probability could be rewritten at any time. TD Securities strategist Pooja Kumra said bluntly: this set of minutes “should give us a glimpse of the extent of the differences in views within the FOMC.”
---
How will A-shares move tomorrow? And how will the crypto market move? Watch these two scenarios closely
Scenario one: the minutes are dovish (higher probability) — if Goldman’s call that there will be no September rate hike is confirmed by the minutes, risk appetite overseas will recover sharply, and A-shares are likely to stage a strong rebound tomorrow. Deeply oversold tech stocks (semiconductors, optical modules, memory) will have the biggest upside, while high-dividend sectors such as coal and banks will continue to attract funds.
Scenario two: the minutes are hawkish — if the minutes show that hawkish forces within the Fed, under Volcker’s legacy, are stronger than expected, overseas sentiment will come under renewed pressure, A-shares may continue to коррект. and funds may keep crowding into coal, oil, and banks as safe havens.
Today the ChiNext board in A-shares fell 7% over two days, more than 5,000 stocks were down, and panic selling has already been largely cleared out. As long as tonight’s minutes release a dovish signal, tomorrow’s rebound could be the strongest in recent times.
Don’t go to bed too early—the 2 a.m. minutes are what will truly decide tomorrow’s opening. #FOMC会议纪要 #花旗拟今年推出机构比特币托管
Before the market opened on August 19, overseas markets had already sent positive signals—the three major U.S. stock index futures all turned higher, storage chip stocks broadly rose, and SK Hynix once surged 6%. Major European indexes mostly rose, U.S. Treasury yields fell rapidly, and gold and silver strengthened.
The core backdrop for this rebound in sentiment is the confidence boost from Goldman Sachs’ latest call: Goldman believes the Fed is highly likely not to raise rates in September. Combined with U.S. CPI and PPI for July both coming in weaker than expected, market worries about the risk of another rate hike have clearly cooled.
But what will truly determine the direction is tonight’s 2 a.m. release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the July monetary policy meeting. At that July rate-setting meeting, three officials argued for a rate hike, and the internal divergence within the Fed is far greater than the market imagined.
Traders currently price the probability of a Fed rate hike in September at only about 30%, but if this set of minutes reveals a hawkish signal, that probability could be rewritten at any time. TD Securities strategist Pooja Kumra said bluntly: this set of minutes “should give us a glimpse of the extent of the differences in views within the FOMC.”
---
How will A-shares move tomorrow? And how will the crypto market move? Watch these two scenarios closely
Scenario one: the minutes are dovish (higher probability) — if Goldman’s call that there will be no September rate hike is confirmed by the minutes, risk appetite overseas will recover sharply, and A-shares are likely to stage a strong rebound tomorrow. Deeply oversold tech stocks (semiconductors, optical modules, memory) will have the biggest upside, while high-dividend sectors such as coal and banks will continue to attract funds.
Scenario two: the minutes are hawkish — if the minutes show that hawkish forces within the Fed, under Volcker’s legacy, are stronger than expected, overseas sentiment will come under renewed pressure, A-shares may continue to коррект. and funds may keep crowding into coal, oil, and banks as safe havens.
Today the ChiNext board in A-shares fell 7% over two days, more than 5,000 stocks were down, and panic selling has already been largely cleared out. As long as tonight’s minutes release a dovish signal, tomorrow’s rebound could be the strongest in recent times.
Don’t go to bed too early—the 2 a.m. minutes are what will truly decide tomorrow’s opening. #FOMC会议纪要 #花旗拟今年推出机构比特币托管