Contract Order Book Daily｜8/18 Rebound on Reduced Positions; Sell-side Pressure Has Not Eased
At 23:00, $BTC mark price was $64,717.2, up 1.32%, but open interest declined 0.4% to $6.879 billion.
Even though the price is moving up, there has not been fresh leverage chasing it. The verifiable signal at present is still that the rebound is driven by position reductions.
The ratio of aggressive buy to sell orders is only 0.88, indicating more aggressive selling than buying. Longs account for 61% and the funding rate is +0.0048%, so long positions are not light.
If open interest turns into growth and the aggressive buy/sell ratio returns above 1, then this “reduced positions rebound” signal can be considered invalid.
For edge contracts, the anomaly is that the funding rates are clearly polarized.
$RED has funding rate as low as -0.587%, meaning the short side bears the heaviest funding pressure; $BNC is as high as +0.447%, with the highest crowding on the long side.
Both ends are prone to being squeezed by price moving in the opposite direction; only when the funding rate keeps falling toward zero can the risk be regarded as downgraded.
On the events side, only three items remain.
Trump may discuss a market-structure bill with representatives from the crypto industry on August 19, but there is currently no confirmed official schedule. From August 19 to 20, we also need to wait for the Fed meeting minutes and the CFTC’s discussion items on crypto.
Citi is preparing a custody offering for Bitcoin—this is a medium-term incremental development—but its launch timing still differs across accounts.
Before there is an official schedule, formal documents, or product launch, these can only be treated as volatility expectations, not as ground-level signals.
Live trading note: This account currently holds FOGO long positions; as long as the thesis hasn’t changed, it will continue to be held.
Claude Fable 5 assists in generation; the content is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
At 23:00, $BTC mark price was $64,717.2, up 1.32%, but open interest declined 0.4% to $6.879 billion.
Even though the price is moving up, there has not been fresh leverage chasing it. The verifiable signal at present is still that the rebound is driven by position reductions.
The ratio of aggressive buy to sell orders is only 0.88, indicating more aggressive selling than buying. Longs account for 61% and the funding rate is +0.0048%, so long positions are not light.
If open interest turns into growth and the aggressive buy/sell ratio returns above 1, then this “reduced positions rebound” signal can be considered invalid.
For edge contracts, the anomaly is that the funding rates are clearly polarized.
$RED has funding rate as low as -0.587%, meaning the short side bears the heaviest funding pressure; $BNC is as high as +0.447%, with the highest crowding on the long side.
Both ends are prone to being squeezed by price moving in the opposite direction; only when the funding rate keeps falling toward zero can the risk be regarded as downgraded.
On the events side, only three items remain.
Trump may discuss a market-structure bill with representatives from the crypto industry on August 19, but there is currently no confirmed official schedule. From August 19 to 20, we also need to wait for the Fed meeting minutes and the CFTC’s discussion items on crypto.
Citi is preparing a custody offering for Bitcoin—this is a medium-term incremental development—but its launch timing still differs across accounts.
Before there is an official schedule, formal documents, or product launch, these can only be treated as volatility expectations, not as ground-level signals.
Live trading note: This account currently holds FOGO long positions; as long as the thesis hasn’t changed, it will continue to be held.
Claude Fable 5 assists in generation; the content is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.