BlockBeats message: On August 18, according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitoring, trader “LucasMeow” currently holds a total of approximately $15.889 million in BTC and ETH short positions on Hyperliquid. At the same time, he has invested around $466,700 on Polymarket, setting up a cross-platform “insurance” package for the shorts.

Currently, he shorts 100 BTC using 40x full-margin leverage, with a position value of about $6.412 million; he also shorts 5,000 ETH using 25x full-margin leverage, with a position value of about $9.477 million. The two short positions combined have an unrealized profit of about $503,000, with margin used of about $539,000.

On the Polymarket side, about $104,000 is used to bet that BTC will not fall within the year to one of six low-price tiers, such as $15,000 to $45,000; about $48,200 is bet that ETH will not fall to $800; and another $314,500 is invested betting that Satoshi’s holdings will not move BTC within the year.

These eight groups of predicted positions have a cumulative cost of about $466,700, which is already 86.5% of the current margin for two short positions. However, because the events corresponding to the buys are themselves high-probability No positions, even if everything is ultimately realized, the maximum combined profit is only about $50,800.

According to static calculations, if a BTC short moves from the entry average price up to its liquidation price of $96,715.7; and if ETH rises to its liquidation price of $2,542.59, the two combined would liquidate (blow up) by about $5.993 million. The maximum profit of the predicted positions is only about 0.85% of the amount above.

Meanwhile, “LucasMeow” is still placing two non-reducing sell orders at BTC’s $62,277 and $61,500, planning to add another 125 BTC shorts, with a notional value of about $7.715 million. Overall, the direction is still clearly bearish.

On-chain Perp and address analysis tool TradingBeats has now launched. It supports real-time viewing of Hyperliquid data, from tracing addresses to tracking whale activity, with in-depth analysis—nothing left out.