Momentum Seeker after the direct launch has subsided. After touching a peak level of around US$0.067, the price of Seeker is now down nearly 70% and is trading in the range of US$0.024. This decline has erased much of the initial enthusiasm. Although this token is still well above its base price at launch, the price action shows that buyers are choosing to stay on the sidelines and are no longer maintaining important levels.
The main question now is no longer about the potential for a rise. Rather, can Seeker avoid further declines? Currently, the outcome no longer depends on the bullish side. The situation actually depends on the bearish side.
Momentum Signal and Flow Indicate Selling Pressure Remains Dominant
The first warning comes from money movements.
On the 4-hour chart, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has remained below zero since January 24. The CMF measures whether capital is flowing into or out of an asset based on price and volume. Negative numbers indicate money is flowing out, not in.
The Seeker attempted a CMF recovery on January 26 but failed. Since then, the CMF has continued to move downward, indicating that buyers have not returned with strong conviction. Currently, the CMF appears to be breaking down from the uptrend line, and if confirmed, this condition could negatively impact the Seeker's price.
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Short-term momentum also confirms this weakness. On the 1-hour chart, the Seeker indeed made a higher high slightly between January 26-27, but the RSI recorded a lower high.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum strength. When prices rise, but the RSI weakens, it indicates that buying pressure is starting to decline. This bearish divergence explains why the recent price bounce failed to continue rising higher.
The combination of weakening CMF and RSI indicates that the downward trend pressure is still active.
Spot Data Shows No Accumulation as Prices Approach Risk Levels
On-chain data reinforces this bearish setup. In the last 24 hours, the token balance on exchanges has increased by 5.31%, bringing the total SKR held on exchanges to 467.08 million tokens. This means approximately 23.6 million SKR moved to exchanges.
Token movements to exchanges usually indicate an intent to sell. At the same time, smart money ownership has decreased by about 4%, indicating no buying action at lower prices or confidence in recovery.
Simply put, there is no spot demand. This is important, as the Seeker is now moving closer to levels where buyers typically enter after correcting nearly 70% from its post-launch peak price. Under normal conditions, the bullish camp would defend this zone. Unfortunately, they are simply not appearing.
Why Bear Derivatives Now Determine Whether the Seeker's Price Will Plummet
This is where the story changes. With spot buyers absent, the only remaining force to stop the breakdown is bearish leverage.
The liquidation map shows areas where leveraged traders will be forced to close their positions. Such liquidations can trigger sharp price movements, even without any real demand. Leverage means traders borrow funds to enlarge positions, thus increasing the risk of liquidation.
In the 30-day perpetual market SKR/USDT owned by Bitget, there are approximately US$3.06 million in short leverage positions, while long leverage positions are around US$1.49 million. In other words, bearish positions dominate by more than 100%.
If the SKR price reacts up to around US$0.030, a short position worth approximately US$1.2 million will start to be liquidated. This could trigger a short squeeze, forcing bearish parties to buy back SKR and push the price up.
But, this difference is crucial. A short squeeze is not a sign of bullish conviction, but rather a forced buying action.
If the bear is not trapped, the Seeker risks falling below US$0.019 and triggering a potential breakdown of 17%. But if the bear is trapped, their liquidation could be the only thing temporarily saving the price. That's why the Seeker is no longer relying on the bull.
