Recently, the movie (Niu Lai) has been trending. In real life, most people watch it out of curiosity, and then in the Web3圈, on Friday there was an on-chain MEME Niu Lai. In just three days, it surged to $40 million.

According to some news reports, there is a “smart money” address that entered when its market value was $67,000 and is now up nearly 600x. So this Niu Lai is also another meme that’s going mainstream.

Of course, a lot of friends feel really FOMO—thinking, why do I always miss opportunities like these that seem to make people rich? I don’t think so, because this isn’t “missing out”; it’s gambling with your life.          

Because I actually noticed “Niu Lai” on Saturday. It had already surged by dozens of times, with a market cap of about several million USD. But I still didn’t dare to get in. It had already gone up by more than ten times—how could I dare to buy? Once it falls, it would be a thousand-to-one plunge, wiping you out to zero. So the people who bought at that time were the brave ones. Then on Sunday, when it rose to a market cap of 30 million, it fell back to 10 million again. At that point, would you dare to get in? You still wouldn’t, because I thought it was going to go to zero, and that this wave of hype had ended. I didn’t expect that on Monday it surged again to a market cap of 40 million.

So for this kind of people, it’s purely “D” (betting on risk). It’s basically the same as buying a lottery ticket. Don’t think you’ll be able to make huge profits and hold onto it; otherwise you couldn’t possibly dare to go in. And as for this meme series “Niu Lai” (bull come), it turns out there are actually many examples, like “bao la,” “tripped body,” “lamb,” and so on—but none of them really caught fire. The only one that broke out was “Niu Lai.”

So for those who dare to take risks and then make money, I don’t think there’s any need to envy them, because “those who walk along the riverbank often do” — you guys fill in the next line.

For this event, I think it’s actually a good thing. The crypto market really is hot right now in terms of hype and narrative. If more exposure doesn’t come, the circle really will go cold.

Of course I’ve always said the coldest time is the best time to build positions. Then can “Niu Lai” really bring “Niu Lai”?

I really think it might happen. I’ve said this before many times: whether you look at time cycles or pullbacks, at least there should be a big rebound—at minimum. If this meme “Niu Lai” can hold on until it really becomes “Niu Lai,” then it really has a chance to go down in history as legendary.

From the trend right now, the most likely to be the first to really run as “bull come” is probably Ethereum, because Ethereum is only a tiny distance from the MA200—about 100 dollars. Ethereum’s MA200 is around 2000, and Ethereum’s current price is in the 1900s. If it rises another 5%, then even assuming the current daily volatility of about 1%, the best-case scenario is that a big breakout could happen this week.

Bitcoin is currently a bit weaker than Ethereum. Bitcoin’s MA200 is around 69,000, and the price is 63,500. Based on the current trend, it might need to play out for about two weeks. Then it depends on whether Ethereum can pull Bitcoin up.

Then everyone can take a look at which mainstream knockoffs have already moved close to the MA200 area. Last week I looked at link near MA200; after it held the level, it directly shot up with a big surge candle. UNI had the same kind of move before too. So right now, many knockoffs show similar situations.

With these mainstream knockoffs—if they hadn’t been launched before—then this indicator is still fairly reliable to look at. For example, in July, there were already quite a few projects starting, like pmup and inj.

Of course it can only be mainstream, not too knockoff. Because if it’s too knockoff, then it’s a game where the player (the whales/market maker) gets to decide. No matter what indicators you look at, none of it matters.

Or you don’t have to pay too much attention to the knockoffs. Just focus on the mainstream Bitcoin and Ethereum is enough.$BNB