I won’t just treat this news as “Lebanon gets bombed again.”
In the latest round of Israeli airstrikes, at least 11 people were killed. Israel said the casualties included a commander from Hezbollah’s Radwan unit.
The issue is—
On the Lebanon side, tensions have just been heating up,
On the other side, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is also clearly slowing down.
Brent is now at about $89.2, just one step away from $90.
So what the market is truly worried about is:
Lebanon + Iran + the Strait of Hormuz
Several lines worsen at the same time.
The most direct impact on ordinary investors:
✅ Energy stocks: Oil prices remain elevated, benefiting more
⚠️ Aviation, transportation, chemicals: energy costs keep rising
✅ Gold: the safe-haven logic continues to exist
⚠️ BTC: geopolitical upgrades usually first suppress risk appetite
I just re-priced:
BTC around $63,575.
Right now I only look at two levels:
62,700—63,000: key support
64,000: re-stabilization confirmed
If the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, BTC can still hold 63K and then reclaim 64K,
That actually shows that follow-on buying isn’t weak.
but if oil prices break above $90 and BTC simultaneously falls below 62.7K,
For now, don’t rush into bottom-fishing on the short term.
What Brother Heng is paying attention to now isn’t Lebanon itself
but:
Whether the Strait of Hormuz is further disrupted.
Because what can truly hurt global markets is,
it’s not just one airstrike—
it means energy supply is starting to face real, substantive problems.
If oil prices hold above $90,
Next, it’s time to re-discuss:
Inflation → Fed → tech stocks → BTC
This whole chain.
So I’ll keep watching this line.
If Brent breaks 90, BTC breaks 62.7K, or reclaims 64K, I’ll update the next step.
Do you think this time the first to explode is:
Oil prices at $90, or will BTC reclaim 64K again?