Contract Order Book Daily｜8/17 Buy Pressure Rebounds, Leverage Still Retreating
The previous signal showed active sell pressure dominating and longs becoming crowded.
At midday there was no further sell-off: for $BTC the marked price is 63332.1, up 0.38%; the active buy/sell ratio rose to 1.2, indicating active buying has regained the upper hand.
However, open interest is still $7.009 billion, changing only -0.1%. The prior sell-pressure signal has weakened, but the crowded positioning structure has not been resolved.
Currently, longs are 68%; the funding rate is positive at 0.0077%. Yet the fear/greed index is only 31.
This means sentiment remains in the fear zone, but contract positioning is clearly tilted toward longs. If price weakens again, the crowded long positions are still the first to bear the pressure.
Peripheral catalysts are unable to help for now.
Progress on legislation for the U.S. crypto market structure has been reported to be stalled, making policy expectations difficult to sustainably support buying.
Meanwhile, wallet user data leaks and phishing activity are heating up: there are reports that about 54,000 users’ data has been leaked. SafePal also disclosed that nearly 40,000 customers’ personal information has been affected. In the near term, this is more likely to amplify capital risk-avoidance and withdrawal pressure.
Imbalance in fees for smaller coins is even more extreme.
BICO’s funding rate is as low as -1.174%, meaning short costs are too high and there is a risk of a rapid short squeeze. EBAY’s funding rate has risen to +0.276%, so longs are paying too much; when volatility moves the other way, concentrated liquidations are more likely.
Audit conclusion: Active sell pressure has been temporarily reversed by buy pressure, but the crowded-long signal is still continuing.
Only if the active buy/sell ratio stays above 1, price stabilizes, and open interest continues to decline will the rebound structure be considered improved. If open interest expands again while funding rates keep rising, risk will point back to cascading liquidations.
Position note: This account’s spot position holds $FOGO long contracts; the disclosure is provided to keep the content consistent with actual trading.
This content was assisted by Claude Fable 5, generated for reference only—please verify for yourself.
The previous signal showed active sell pressure dominating and longs becoming crowded.
At midday there was no further sell-off: for $BTC the marked price is 63332.1, up 0.38%; the active buy/sell ratio rose to 1.2, indicating active buying has regained the upper hand.
However, open interest is still $7.009 billion, changing only -0.1%. The prior sell-pressure signal has weakened, but the crowded positioning structure has not been resolved.
Currently, longs are 68%; the funding rate is positive at 0.0077%. Yet the fear/greed index is only 31.
This means sentiment remains in the fear zone, but contract positioning is clearly tilted toward longs. If price weakens again, the crowded long positions are still the first to bear the pressure.
Peripheral catalysts are unable to help for now.
Progress on legislation for the U.S. crypto market structure has been reported to be stalled, making policy expectations difficult to sustainably support buying.
Meanwhile, wallet user data leaks and phishing activity are heating up: there are reports that about 54,000 users’ data has been leaked. SafePal also disclosed that nearly 40,000 customers’ personal information has been affected. In the near term, this is more likely to amplify capital risk-avoidance and withdrawal pressure.
Imbalance in fees for smaller coins is even more extreme.
BICO’s funding rate is as low as -1.174%, meaning short costs are too high and there is a risk of a rapid short squeeze. EBAY’s funding rate has risen to +0.276%, so longs are paying too much; when volatility moves the other way, concentrated liquidations are more likely.
Audit conclusion: Active sell pressure has been temporarily reversed by buy pressure, but the crowded-long signal is still continuing.
Only if the active buy/sell ratio stays above 1, price stabilizes, and open interest continues to decline will the rebound structure be considered improved. If open interest expands again while funding rates keep rising, risk will point back to cascading liquidations.
Position note: This account’s spot position holds $FOGO long contracts; the disclosure is provided to keep the content consistent with actual trading.
This content was assisted by Claude Fable 5, generated for reference only—please verify for yourself.