LME copper inventories have fallen for 42 consecutive days, setting the longest streak since 2014. At heart, it’s a double squeeze: “tightness at the mine end + a scramble for non-U.S. spot supplies.” Copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) have dropped to a historical low of -175 USD per dry ton. Export bans on copper concentrates from the Congo (DRC), along with storms in Chile, have led major miners such as Codelco to shut down extensively. The shortage on the mine end is unlikely to be resolved in the near term. Meanwhile, U.S. tariff policies are pushing inventories toward North America; combined LME+SHFE inventories outside the U.S. total only about 300,000 tons. The spot premium structure has also been continuously strengthened.
On the demand side, the price story is driven hard by two factors: power grid investment (State Grid fixed-asset investment in the first half exceeded RMB 310 billion, up 12.6% year-on-year) and AI compute infrastructure. As a result, the copper price logic is shifting from “demand-driven” to a “supply constraint + demand rigidity” two-wheel engine.
Mapping to the market: in the short term 📈 slightly bullish but with consolidation at elevated levels. COMEX copper futures (HG) are holding steady near the top of the range. U.S.-listed copper miners—Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO)—are directly amplifying copper price volatility. In the medium to long term 📈 bullish: electrification plus AI data centers steepens the copper demand curve; even estimates from industrial research firms suggest the upside could challenge 15,000 USD per ton.
The risk is on the 📉 side—high prices have started to suppress downstream purchasing. The Yantian port copper import premium has eased back from multi-year highs. Once an inventory turning point appears, a short-term pullback is difficult to avoid. Overall, it’s “stay long, but see short-term volatility.” Hold low-level positions 📈; be cautious about chasing after big rallies to avoid 📉 whipsaw.#LME铜库存连跌42日创2014年来最长
$FCX.US
$SCCO.US
On the demand side, the price story is driven hard by two factors: power grid investment (State Grid fixed-asset investment in the first half exceeded RMB 310 billion, up 12.6% year-on-year) and AI compute infrastructure. As a result, the copper price logic is shifting from “demand-driven” to a “supply constraint + demand rigidity” two-wheel engine.
Mapping to the market: in the short term 📈 slightly bullish but with consolidation at elevated levels. COMEX copper futures (HG) are holding steady near the top of the range. U.S.-listed copper miners—Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO)—are directly amplifying copper price volatility. In the medium to long term 📈 bullish: electrification plus AI data centers steepens the copper demand curve; even estimates from industrial research firms suggest the upside could challenge 15,000 USD per ton.
The risk is on the 📉 side—high prices have started to suppress downstream purchasing. The Yantian port copper import premium has eased back from multi-year highs. Once an inventory turning point appears, a short-term pullback is difficult to avoid. Overall, it’s “stay long, but see short-term volatility.” Hold low-level positions 📈; be cautious about chasing after big rallies to avoid 📉 whipsaw.#LME铜库存连跌42日创2014年来最长
$FCX.US
$SCCO.US