The fear index dropped 3 points in a day—crashing from 34 to 31.
Current price is 62,900, hovering just under 700 points above the lower Bollinger band at 62,224.
MACD is bearish.
RSI is 42.8—buying momentum is weak, but it hasn’t yet reached oversold.
MA5 is falling to below MA20 (MA5: 63,084 vs MA20: 63,796). The short-term moving averages are already pressing down on the price.
For the bulls to regain their footing, they first need to reclaim 63,700.
That’s the area where MA20 and MA50 are stuck together—63,690 to 63,796.
The bears are watching this zone too. If the price rebounds into it, people will be placing short orders.
If it can’t get back above 63,700, any rally is just a bear-market bounce.
Only if it rises above 63,800 on increased volume does the bearish thesis become invalid.
Volume ratio is 0.0, trading volume is 299 million. The market this morning at 8 a.m. was compressed so much it had no fight left.
A gradual slide on shrinking volume is more grinding than getting smashed on high volume—because nobody is stepping in to buy.
Key resistance is 66,956, the high from the early-August rebound that trapped a bunch of long positions.
Key support is 57,800, the most concentrated trading zone over the past month. If it breaks below, it’s basically a vacuum.
My own plan: On a rebound to around 63,700, I’ll short with a light position size. Stop-loss at 64,500. Target at 62,275. If that breaks, then look to 59,588.
If I make money, I’ll call it luck. If I lose, I’ll treat it as tuition paid to the market.
Fear index is 31—still in the fear zone, but it’s just one breath away from the extreme.
Last time I held longs at this level, I lost a week’s wages.
#BTC #ETH #比特币 #币圈 #market analysis
Current price is 62,900, hovering just under 700 points above the lower Bollinger band at 62,224.
MACD is bearish.
RSI is 42.8—buying momentum is weak, but it hasn’t yet reached oversold.
MA5 is falling to below MA20 (MA5: 63,084 vs MA20: 63,796). The short-term moving averages are already pressing down on the price.
For the bulls to regain their footing, they first need to reclaim 63,700.
That’s the area where MA20 and MA50 are stuck together—63,690 to 63,796.
The bears are watching this zone too. If the price rebounds into it, people will be placing short orders.
If it can’t get back above 63,700, any rally is just a bear-market bounce.
Only if it rises above 63,800 on increased volume does the bearish thesis become invalid.
Volume ratio is 0.0, trading volume is 299 million. The market this morning at 8 a.m. was compressed so much it had no fight left.
A gradual slide on shrinking volume is more grinding than getting smashed on high volume—because nobody is stepping in to buy.
Key resistance is 66,956, the high from the early-August rebound that trapped a bunch of long positions.
Key support is 57,800, the most concentrated trading zone over the past month. If it breaks below, it’s basically a vacuum.
My own plan: On a rebound to around 63,700, I’ll short with a light position size. Stop-loss at 64,500. Target at 62,275. If that breaks, then look to 59,588.
If I make money, I’ll call it luck. If I lose, I’ll treat it as tuition paid to the market.
Fear index is 31—still in the fear zone, but it’s just one breath away from the extreme.
Last time I held longs at this level, I lost a week’s wages.
#BTC #ETH #比特币 #币圈 #market analysis