There are two things in the market that cannot be avoided:
Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on January 29
Earnings reports from the 'big seven' in U.S. stocks are being released intensively.
What will happen when these two events are squeezed into the same week?
It's not just a simple price rebound or correction, but rather the pace at which risk appetite is being completely 'repriced' in the short term.
To put it simply, the current market is like walking a tightrope.
On one side, macro liquidity expectations need to be recalibrated - the market has almost pushed the probability of a rate cut in January to a low level, and the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain interest rates unchanged, or even convey hawkish signals, which would directly undermine the valuation basis of risk assets.
On the other hand, core U.S. stock assets will successively present their 'results' within a week.
Giants like Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla are about to announce their earnings; these reports not only determine their performance for the quarter but also whether market sentiment can continue to be maintained at a high level.
Don't forget, the U.S. stock market is not rising due to the entire market, but because these giants are supporting the index.
If they keep being dovish, if their revenue is below expectations, and if their future guidance is weak, both the S&P and the Nasdaq will see amplified fluctuations, and BTC/ETH in risk assets will be the first to face selling pressure.
In my personal view, the cryptocurrency market is no longer experiencing an 'independent market'.
Rather, it is highly influenced by the fluctuations in U.S. stock market sentiment and global liquidity expectations.
If such a combination appears this week 👇
The Federal Reserve is 'dovish' but not injecting liquidity.
The earnings reports from the seven giants are overall stable, even exceeding expectations.
Only then will the upward movement of BTC/ETH have a real foundation.
But if something appears 👇
The interest rate decision is generally neutral, with no substantial stimulus.
A couple of giants' earnings reports may disappoint.
Then first, it's the adjustment of the U.S. stock market.
Additionally, crypto will not enjoy a solo market —
BTC is likely to pull back first, leading to a shakeout in the entire market.
This week's focus is not on betting 'long' or 'short'.
Rather, it's about whether the market dares to continue standing on the side of risk assets.
Don't preemptively bet on direction, wait for the market to provide answers first.
Don't rush to conclusions, don't gamble on expectations.
If the market is strong, wait for structural confirmation;
Sentiment is weak, so defensive measures and rhythm should be prioritized.
The situation this week
It's not about who can shout the most accurately.
It's a competition of who can last longer.
The market will provide the answer.
It just depends on whether you have the patience to wait for it to finish speaking.#美联储利率决议#加密市场观察#美股七巨头财报
