CLARITY Act Countdown: a Life-or-Death Situation in 2–3 Weeks
Optimistic expectations have shattered into pieces.
Galaxy Research cut the bill’s passage odds from 75% straight down to 10%. On Polymarket, it’s even worse: 82% in February, now only 19%.
On August 19, Trump will convene Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, Kalshi, as well as both co-chairs of the SEC and the CFTC at the White House for what’s being billed as the “final dinner.”
The more they call it the “final effort,” the more it suggests that conventional measures are already out of options.
Three knots, and each one is harder to untangle than the last.
The Trump family’s business entanglements with regulation are murky, and the ethical framework proposed by senators was treated as if the White House hadn’t seen it. Community banks are fighting stablecoins tooth and nail—worried their deposits will be drained, they refuse to agree to any yield provisions. The boundaries of the developer exemption can’t be clearly drawn, and the industry itself started arguing first.
And the SEC comes in to land another blow. The Reg Crypto vote that was originally scheduled to move forward on August 14 was suddenly canceled the night before, citing “unforeseen scheduling arrangements.”
The subtext is blunt: the more the bill gets stuck, the more power the SEC gains.
Time also isn’t on the bill’s side. The Senate reconvenes on September 14, and at 2:15 PM on September 15 is the deadline for the Cloture procedural vote. On October 2, lawmakers are set to sprint toward the midterm elections.
The only usable time left is just 2–3 weeks.
The vote count is even short. The bill needs 60 votes; Republicans have only 53 seats—still 7 short. Galaxy Research puts it directly: if they can’t push it through this time, they’ll wait for the next Congress to start over.
Stand With Crypto lined up more than 200 companies—Saylor, Lummis, and a16z all threw money at it.
Yet it’s still a case of people doing their best and fate not cooperating.
The truly decisive moment isn’t in the White House group photo—it’s in the documents the SEC will issue in the coming weeks.
If legislation won’t work, administrative agencies will fill in the gaps.
The turning point for U.S. crypto regulation is shifting from Capitol Hill to federal office buildings.
#Follow4Follow# #FollowingBackGuaranteed#
Optimistic expectations have shattered into pieces.
Galaxy Research cut the bill’s passage odds from 75% straight down to 10%. On Polymarket, it’s even worse: 82% in February, now only 19%.
On August 19, Trump will convene Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, Kalshi, as well as both co-chairs of the SEC and the CFTC at the White House for what’s being billed as the “final dinner.”
The more they call it the “final effort,” the more it suggests that conventional measures are already out of options.
Three knots, and each one is harder to untangle than the last.
The Trump family’s business entanglements with regulation are murky, and the ethical framework proposed by senators was treated as if the White House hadn’t seen it. Community banks are fighting stablecoins tooth and nail—worried their deposits will be drained, they refuse to agree to any yield provisions. The boundaries of the developer exemption can’t be clearly drawn, and the industry itself started arguing first.
And the SEC comes in to land another blow. The Reg Crypto vote that was originally scheduled to move forward on August 14 was suddenly canceled the night before, citing “unforeseen scheduling arrangements.”
The subtext is blunt: the more the bill gets stuck, the more power the SEC gains.
Time also isn’t on the bill’s side. The Senate reconvenes on September 14, and at 2:15 PM on September 15 is the deadline for the Cloture procedural vote. On October 2, lawmakers are set to sprint toward the midterm elections.
The only usable time left is just 2–3 weeks.
The vote count is even short. The bill needs 60 votes; Republicans have only 53 seats—still 7 short. Galaxy Research puts it directly: if they can’t push it through this time, they’ll wait for the next Congress to start over.
Stand With Crypto lined up more than 200 companies—Saylor, Lummis, and a16z all threw money at it.
Yet it’s still a case of people doing their best and fate not cooperating.
The truly decisive moment isn’t in the White House group photo—it’s in the documents the SEC will issue in the coming weeks.
If legislation won’t work, administrative agencies will fill in the gaps.
The turning point for U.S. crypto regulation is shifting from Capitol Hill to federal office buildings.
#Follow4Follow# #FollowingBackGuaranteed#