《8/16 Why Has BTC Been Falling These Past Few Days While US Stocks Are Rising?》
Many people have lost their composure. In fact, the macro logic behind it is very clear, mainly driven by a three-step chain:
1. The base of US-Japan arbitrage (Yen Carry Trade)
Global institutions have long borrowed large amounts of yen at extremely low interest rates, converted them into USD to buy US Treasuries, core assets in US stocks, and also to add leverage to BTC.
Japan is also the largest overseas holder of US Treasuries, and the US and Japan have a natural understanding/coordination when it comes to exchange-rate stability and the stability of US Treasuries.
2. Yen appreciation triggers forced liquidation
Joint US-Japan intervention lifts the yen, and combined with the Bank of Japan releasing signals of potential rate hikes, the yen appreciates rapidly.
This delivers a double blow to the arbitrage players: “FX losses + skyrocketing borrowing costs.” They then must sell risk assets to de-leverage and repay yen-denominated debts.
3. US stocks are supported by earnings, while BTC becomes the “first cash-out machine”
Major US technology companies have strong AI performance and solid fundamentals supporting their earnings;
Meanwhile, BTC has no independent catalyst, and it can be monetized 24/7 with excellent liquidity.
When institutions face a Margin Call in US stocks or in the FX market, the first asset they typically sell to raise cash is BTC.
Summary: This is not deterioration in BTC’s fundamentals itself, but a short-term liquidity drain caused by US-Japan FX intervention.
After the pressure from the yen-carry-arbitrage unwinds and positions are cleared, the market will eventually return to the main track. The overall transmission logic going forward is:
US-Japan coordinated intervention → FIMA expansion → Japan avoids directly selling US Treasuries; Treasuries and US stocks stay stable → Arbitrage trades de-leverage → Fed rate-cut expectations restart, releasing liquidity → BTC, as a high-volatility asset, leads and welcomes the rebound. $BTC
Many people have lost their composure. In fact, the macro logic behind it is very clear, mainly driven by a three-step chain:
1. The base of US-Japan arbitrage (Yen Carry Trade)
Global institutions have long borrowed large amounts of yen at extremely low interest rates, converted them into USD to buy US Treasuries, core assets in US stocks, and also to add leverage to BTC.
Japan is also the largest overseas holder of US Treasuries, and the US and Japan have a natural understanding/coordination when it comes to exchange-rate stability and the stability of US Treasuries.
2. Yen appreciation triggers forced liquidation
Joint US-Japan intervention lifts the yen, and combined with the Bank of Japan releasing signals of potential rate hikes, the yen appreciates rapidly.
This delivers a double blow to the arbitrage players: “FX losses + skyrocketing borrowing costs.” They then must sell risk assets to de-leverage and repay yen-denominated debts.
3. US stocks are supported by earnings, while BTC becomes the “first cash-out machine”
Major US technology companies have strong AI performance and solid fundamentals supporting their earnings;
Meanwhile, BTC has no independent catalyst, and it can be monetized 24/7 with excellent liquidity.
When institutions face a Margin Call in US stocks or in the FX market, the first asset they typically sell to raise cash is BTC.
Summary: This is not deterioration in BTC’s fundamentals itself, but a short-term liquidity drain caused by US-Japan FX intervention.
After the pressure from the yen-carry-arbitrage unwinds and positions are cleared, the market will eventually return to the main track. The overall transmission logic going forward is:
US-Japan coordinated intervention → FIMA expansion → Japan avoids directly selling US Treasuries; Treasuries and US stocks stay stable → Arbitrage trades de-leverage → Fed rate-cut expectations restart, releasing liquidity → BTC, as a high-volatility asset, leads and welcomes the rebound. $BTC