The history of Bitcoin shows patterns that attract attention. The main bottoms were separated by intervals close to four years, just like the major peaks. However, this does not mean that the cycle is split evenly between two years of gains and two years of losses. Considering the three most recent cycles and treating October 2025 as the peak of the last one, Bitcoin took, on average, about 1,060 days—approximately two years and eleven months—to move from the bottom and reach the top. In the reverse direction, from the peak to the next bottom, the average was about 383 days, a little more than one year. Historically, therefore, the cycle has been asymmetrical: nearly three years of recovery and appreciation, followed by roughly a year of a bear market.

The relationship with halving also shows a curious regularity: bottoms typically occur about 500 days before the event, while tops appear approximately between 500 and 550 days afterward. Other patterns repeat as well: the previous cycle’s peak often turns into an important support region; the 200-week moving average tends to approach the major bottom zones; and the most recent cycles show proportionally smaller gains and less severe drops. None of these coincidences guarantees that the future will repeat the past, but the recurrence suggests that Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity, combined with investor psychology, continues to produce recognizable cycles of euphoria, correction, and recovery.

In summary

  • Bottom to bottom: approximately 4 years;

  • Top to top: approximately 4 years;

  • Bottom to the next top: average of 1,060 days, or approximately 3 years;

  • Top to the next bottom: average of 383 days, or approximately 1 year;

  • Bottom to the next halving: about 500 days;

  • Halving to the top: approximately 500 to 550 days;

  • Previous cycle’s top: tends to turn into a support region;

  • 200-week moving average: historically approaches bottom regions;

  • More recent cycles: smaller gains and less deep declines.

A final recap, in approximate figures: three years of gains, one year of decline, and four-year intervals between the major extremes.

They could just be historical coincidences—but they’re too regular to ignore.