Galaxy: Passage probability of the “CLARITY Act” plunges to 10%; the SEC and CFTC are forced to “act separately”
On August 15, Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn, in a report, sharply cut the passage probability to 10%. Once seen as a U.S. crypto regulatory milestone, the “CLARITY Act” is now sliding significantly away from bipartisan political consensus.
This downward revision reflects a string of political setbacks, including unresolved government officials’ crypto ethics rules, pressure from community banks causing Republican support to loosen, and ongoing disputes over developer-protection provisions.
Given that the Senate majority leader failed to push for a vote before the August recess, and after the Senate reconvenes in September, the remaining window for legislation is only two to three weeks. Against this backdrop, the SEC and CFTC immediately abandoned waiting and launched independent actions.
On the SEC side, it is re-examining two administrative measures that had previously been put on hold—namely the “Reg Crypto” exemption and the “Innovation Exemption.” The former would create a new pathway for primary issuance of crypto assets, while the latter allows tokenized securities to trade in secondary markets on DeFi platforms.
These two measures were paused due to opposition from the traditional securities industry, but they may now be restarted—possibly because prospects for the bill have dimmed. Internally, institutions are reassessing their feasibility, and the text is expected to be published within the next few weeks to months.
However, Thorn points out that even if these measures are introduced, such “time-limited sandbox” rules will still face legal challenges and could take years to be fully implemented.
Meanwhile, the CFTC has taken a more direct enforcement posture. The agency is actively pushing for jurisdiction over prediction market contracts, and has issued an emergency order in response to the New York State attorney general’s efforts to ban Kalshi event contracts nationwide.
In addition, time pressure is also intensifying. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce plans to leave in November; her departure could shift the balance within the SEC regarding crypto policy and adds extra urgency to rulemaking.
In summary, although the two agencies’ independent actions can help fill some policy gaps in the absence of unified legislation, the related administrative measures still need to go through a long process of judicial review and rulemaking. In the near term, the “fragmented” state of U.S. crypto regulation is unlikely to change.
#CLARITY法案
On August 15, Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn, in a report, sharply cut the passage probability to 10%. Once seen as a U.S. crypto regulatory milestone, the “CLARITY Act” is now sliding significantly away from bipartisan political consensus.
This downward revision reflects a string of political setbacks, including unresolved government officials’ crypto ethics rules, pressure from community banks causing Republican support to loosen, and ongoing disputes over developer-protection provisions.
Given that the Senate majority leader failed to push for a vote before the August recess, and after the Senate reconvenes in September, the remaining window for legislation is only two to three weeks. Against this backdrop, the SEC and CFTC immediately abandoned waiting and launched independent actions.
On the SEC side, it is re-examining two administrative measures that had previously been put on hold—namely the “Reg Crypto” exemption and the “Innovation Exemption.” The former would create a new pathway for primary issuance of crypto assets, while the latter allows tokenized securities to trade in secondary markets on DeFi platforms.
These two measures were paused due to opposition from the traditional securities industry, but they may now be restarted—possibly because prospects for the bill have dimmed. Internally, institutions are reassessing their feasibility, and the text is expected to be published within the next few weeks to months.
However, Thorn points out that even if these measures are introduced, such “time-limited sandbox” rules will still face legal challenges and could take years to be fully implemented.
Meanwhile, the CFTC has taken a more direct enforcement posture. The agency is actively pushing for jurisdiction over prediction market contracts, and has issued an emergency order in response to the New York State attorney general’s efforts to ban Kalshi event contracts nationwide.
In addition, time pressure is also intensifying. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce plans to leave in November; her departure could shift the balance within the SEC regarding crypto policy and adds extra urgency to rulemaking.
In summary, although the two agencies’ independent actions can help fill some policy gaps in the absence of unified legislation, the related administrative measures still need to go through a long process of judicial review and rulemaking. In the near term, the “fragmented” state of U.S. crypto regulation is unlikely to change.
#CLARITY法案