Damn it—Polymarket is most likely not going to issue an airdrop.
The promise we drew for the community earlier was that once they obtained U.S. compliant market access, they would then airdrop tokens. There were even rumors about an airdrop lookup page, and for a while everyone believed it was the last great moment for opportunistic “farmers.”
But later it kept getting delayed, and in hindsight, everyone kind of saw it coming. This news from 2025 finally got released today, which suggests PM probably can’t obtain the required compliance credentials.
Once compliance is blocked, many of PM’s issues will surface—insider trading, real user attrition, the collapse of the valuation narrative... Even if PM forcibly runs a TGE, it probably won’t be able to get a valuation comparable to Kalshi; it might even be worse than predict.fun.
The promise we drew for the community earlier was that once they obtained U.S. compliant market access, they would then airdrop tokens. There were even rumors about an airdrop lookup page, and for a while everyone believed it was the last great moment for opportunistic “farmers.”
But later it kept getting delayed, and in hindsight, everyone kind of saw it coming. This news from 2025 finally got released today, which suggests PM probably can’t obtain the required compliance credentials.
Once compliance is blocked, many of PM’s issues will surface—insider trading, real user attrition, the collapse of the valuation narrative... Even if PM forcibly runs a TGE, it probably won’t be able to get a valuation comparable to Kalshi; it might even be worse than predict.fun.