Apple has been really interesting lately.
Earlier it surged to around $345 at its peak,
Now Binance AAPLUSDT has returned to around $305.87.
it’s fallen so much,
and just at this time, another very crucial piece of good news came in:
Apple is training its own AI models for the China market, with Alibaba support behind it.
Why is this important?
Because one of the biggest problems Apple faced in China in the past was,
It’s not that iPhones are不好 to sell,
but—
Apple Intelligence still hasn’t truly been completed.
Now the logic is changing:
China’s AI regulation is moving forward
↓
Apple’s self-developed China version AI model
↓
Integration with local capabilities such as Alibaba
↓
Siri/Apple Intelligence is truly starting to catch up.
↓
China's iPhone competitiveness has a chance to improve again.
Apple's fundamentals are actually not bad.
Latest quarter:
Revenue of approximately US$109.4 billion
Year-on-year increase of 16.4%
iPhone revenue:
+21.7%
Mac：
+28.7%
Where is the problem?
It's not that they can't sell.
Instead—
Supply chain cannot keep up with demand + weak guidance for the next quarter.
Therefore, the market first drove down valuations.
This leads to a very interesting contradiction:
Performance is still growing
+
The AI narrative is beginning to unfold.
but
The stock price, however, rose from around $345.
It dropped back to $305.
This is what ordinary investors should really look at.
⸻
📍 AAPLUSDT I'm currently watching a few key levels
Current price: Approximately US$305.9
First layout area:
$300-$303
This is where I prefer to start observing.
If an ordinary user really wants to become an Apple,
I won't put all my money into my position at once.
Instead, we'll test it out in a small warehouse first.
Second layout area:
$294-$297
If the market experiences another round of risk release...
This is actually the more comfortable second gear.
Strong support:
$284-$289
If it really comes here...
It's already in a relatively deep pullback zone.
However, if the daily chart breaks through the 284 level effectively, it will be a significant drop.
That's no longer a simple callback.
The entire structure needs to be reassessed.
⸻
📍 At what point above can we truly say the market has turned bullish?
The biggest problem is here:
Both EMA20 and EMA55 are concentrated in
Around $311-$313.
So I won't buy the Peugeot 305 just because it looks cheap.
They just called for a reversal.
I only look at:
Return to $313
→ First layer of repair
Breaking through $320-$323
→ Bulls have clearly returned
Back above $330
→ Only then will they be qualified to challenge the previous high of 345 again.
Therefore, the most common mistake that ordinary users make is:
I went all in on 305 after seeing it drop significantly.
My thinking is actually:
Wait in batches around 300.
See confirmation for numbers above 313.
⸻
What are the truly worthwhile positive factors for Apple right now?
First, Chinese AI.
If Apple Intelligence is eventually officially launched in China
This is the most direct variable for improving competitiveness in the China region.
Second, demand for iPhones remains strong.
iPhone revenue grew by more than 20% in the latest quarter.
This indicates that the core product did not collapse.
Third, a $100 billion buyback.
Apple remains one of the companies with the strongest cash flow in the world.
Continued share buybacks remain valuable to long-term shareholders.
Fourth, the ways in which AI is invested differ.
Microsoft, Google, and Meta are investing heavily in data centers.
Apple, on the contrary, is more inclined to:
Device AI
+
Collaborative Model
+
Private cloud
If the AI experience can catch up in the end,
Apple may be one of the few.
It didn't burn through hundreds of billions of dollars in CAPEX.
Yet, the giants that are able to reap the benefits of AI.
⸻
But I've also made the risks clear:
The supply chain remains tight.
Services growth has begun to slow.
Moreover, on September 1st,
Apple will also officially enter a new era of CEOs.
So it's definitely not like that now:
"Apple's stock price has fallen, buy it without hesitation."
Instead:
Good companies have reached a point where their prices are worth studying.
⸻
Analyst Heng Ge's opinion:
I will not heavily invest in the market around 305 now.
My approach as a regular user is very simple:
300-303: The first transaction
294-297: The second stroke
284-289: Reassessing Extreme Market Conditions
Then, as long as we regain our footing between 311 and 313,
Only then will I upgrade my viewing level.
If Apple's AI truly takes root in China later...
At the same time, the stock price has rebounded to above 320.
This time, the price dropped from 345 to around 300.
This could lead to a "negative news-driven valuation drop".
It is gradually becoming a window for the next round of restructuring.
Do you think Apple is currently worth $305?
It's an opportunity after a wrongful killing.
Should we go to 290 again?
I will continue to follow up on the key points in $AAPL .