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U.S. retail sales data is one of the most critical economic indicators ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision.
The U.S. Department of Commerce released July retail sales data. The data showed that U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% month on month in July, far below market expectations of 0.1% growth and the previous 0.2% reading. Looking back at June, U.S. retail sales rose 6.7% year on year and 0.2% month on month, slowing from May’s 1% month-on-month growth. Excluding gas station sales, June sales rose 0.7% month on month. Market analysis believes the main reason for the slowdown in June retail sales growth was the decline in oil prices, which led to a sharp drop in gas station sales.
In July, sales declined instead of rising on a low base, and the drop was far beyond expectations, indicating that real consumer demand after stripping out oil-price fluctuations is cooling at an accelerating pace. Combined with the previously reported 230,000 decline in July nonfarm payrolls and the mild pullback in both CPI and core CPI, this will significantly strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes.
Institutions expect the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting to keep interest rates unchanged, with a rate hike possibly not occurring until 2027.
Kaiyuan Securities said the threshold for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in 2026 remains relatively high. Although geopolitical tensions are elevated and inflation faces uncertainty, the public’s inflation expectations are relatively stable, making a spiral rise in inflation less likely; it may also be difficult for the Fed to form a unified internal view, so it is likely to keep observing. In 2026, the Federal Reserve may tend to keep rates unchanged, with a rate hike possibly not occurring until 2027.
Wanlian Securities said the risk of continued deterioration in U.S. employment is currently small, and policy will still focus on the inflation trend going forward. It expects the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting to keep interest rates unchanged.
As of August 15, data from CME’s "FedWatch" showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged through September was 67.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 32.5%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged through October was 53.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike was 6.8%$BB $B2 $ETH
U.S. retail sales data is one of the most critical economic indicators ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision.
The U.S. Department of Commerce released July retail sales data. The data showed that U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% month on month in July, far below market expectations of 0.1% growth and the previous 0.2% reading. Looking back at June, U.S. retail sales rose 6.7% year on year and 0.2% month on month, slowing from May’s 1% month-on-month growth. Excluding gas station sales, June sales rose 0.7% month on month. Market analysis believes the main reason for the slowdown in June retail sales growth was the decline in oil prices, which led to a sharp drop in gas station sales.
In July, sales declined instead of rising on a low base, and the drop was far beyond expectations, indicating that real consumer demand after stripping out oil-price fluctuations is cooling at an accelerating pace. Combined with the previously reported 230,000 decline in July nonfarm payrolls and the mild pullback in both CPI and core CPI, this will significantly strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes.
Institutions expect the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting to keep interest rates unchanged, with a rate hike possibly not occurring until 2027.
Kaiyuan Securities said the threshold for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in 2026 remains relatively high. Although geopolitical tensions are elevated and inflation faces uncertainty, the public’s inflation expectations are relatively stable, making a spiral rise in inflation less likely; it may also be difficult for the Fed to form a unified internal view, so it is likely to keep observing. In 2026, the Federal Reserve may tend to keep rates unchanged, with a rate hike possibly not occurring until 2027.
Wanlian Securities said the risk of continued deterioration in U.S. employment is currently small, and policy will still focus on the inflation trend going forward. It expects the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting to keep interest rates unchanged.
As of August 15, data from CME’s "FedWatch" showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged through September was 67.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 32.5%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged through October was 53.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike was 6.8%$BB $B2 $ETH