🇺🇸 Consumer spending in the US weakened sharply
Retail sales fell 0.6% in July versus expectations of +0.1%.
But more importantly, Retail Control, an indicator directly used in GDP calculations, fell 0.4% versus a forecast of +0.3%.
📉 Core retail sales: −0.3% versus expectations of +0.2%.
June was strong, but by July key metrics had turned negative.
Consumer spending makes up about 70% of the US economy. So weak data reinforces expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
🤔The key question now: is the US economy just cooling off, or is it starting to slow down too quickly?
The Fed wants to see the economy cool: weaker demand, lower price pressures, and more room to cut rates. But if consumers begin sharply reducing spending, that’s already a dangerous signal. Weak sales can lead to reduced production and fewer jobs, which will hit consumption even harder. So for markets, the crucial line is thin: bad data = good for rate-cut expectations, as long as it doesn’t become so bad that it starts to point to a recession.
#btc
Retail sales fell 0.6% in July versus expectations of +0.1%.
But more importantly, Retail Control, an indicator directly used in GDP calculations, fell 0.4% versus a forecast of +0.3%.
📉 Core retail sales: −0.3% versus expectations of +0.2%.
June was strong, but by July key metrics had turned negative.
Consumer spending makes up about 70% of the US economy. So weak data reinforces expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
🤔The key question now: is the US economy just cooling off, or is it starting to slow down too quickly?
The Fed wants to see the economy cool: weaker demand, lower price pressures, and more room to cut rates. But if consumers begin sharply reducing spending, that’s already a dangerous signal. Weak sales can lead to reduced production and fewer jobs, which will hit consumption even harder. So for markets, the crucial line is thin: bad data = good for rate-cut expectations, as long as it doesn’t become so bad that it starts to point to a recession.
#btc