NBIS is currently around 258u, and although it's still red after 24 hours, it's barely so—more than three points. But it doesn't look right.
I just rode a wave up yesterday—an almost 30% surge. Today, the 24-hour high at 276 failed to hold, and since then it's already given back six or seven points. To put it plainly: the gains are still there, but the momentum is gone.
The issue is with the money. The contract open interest shrank by nearly 30% in a day. The leveraged positions that powered this leg up have basically been washed clean. For the spot side, the net inflow of large orders across the entire window is basically zero. This rebound wasn’t bought by big money—it’s the contract market itself playing around. The order book is similar: passive sell orders account for more than half, buys are down to just a bit over 40%. Trading volume halved in about seven hours; the bid side is getting thinner, while sell pressure hasn’t gone away. The funding/fee rate is stuck near zero and slightly negative—no one is willing to lift the longs.
That said, it’s not necessarily about crashing. The four-hour trend is still upward, the price is still hovering near the short moving averages, and the big-holder long/short positioning ratio is still net long. But after being washed down from a high, chasing longs from here is basically betting that the contract market will reignite—so the risk/reward isn’t great.
My plan: wait and observe—don’t chase. If you want to participate, wait for a pullback and see whether someone takes it at lower levels. If it holds, we talk; if it doesn’t, keep waiting. On a market where leverage has just been washed out, until the direction is clear, don’t rush to pick a side.
#nbis $NBIS
I just rode a wave up yesterday—an almost 30% surge. Today, the 24-hour high at 276 failed to hold, and since then it's already given back six or seven points. To put it plainly: the gains are still there, but the momentum is gone.
The issue is with the money. The contract open interest shrank by nearly 30% in a day. The leveraged positions that powered this leg up have basically been washed clean. For the spot side, the net inflow of large orders across the entire window is basically zero. This rebound wasn’t bought by big money—it’s the contract market itself playing around. The order book is similar: passive sell orders account for more than half, buys are down to just a bit over 40%. Trading volume halved in about seven hours; the bid side is getting thinner, while sell pressure hasn’t gone away. The funding/fee rate is stuck near zero and slightly negative—no one is willing to lift the longs.
That said, it’s not necessarily about crashing. The four-hour trend is still upward, the price is still hovering near the short moving averages, and the big-holder long/short positioning ratio is still net long. But after being washed down from a high, chasing longs from here is basically betting that the contract market will reignite—so the risk/reward isn’t great.
My plan: wait and observe—don’t chase. If you want to participate, wait for a pullback and see whether someone takes it at lower levels. If it holds, we talk; if it doesn’t, keep waiting. On a market where leverage has just been washed out, until the direction is clear, don’t rush to pick a side.
#nbis $NBIS