AVAAI is now around 0.014. First, the conclusion: I’m not chasing this spot—I’ll wait and observe.
The increase is real. Over 7 days it’s close to 70%, over 24 hours it’s 26%. It went from 0.008 all the way up to 0.0151, and the 4-hour chart is still up—momentum is there. There’s nothing to nitpick about.
But the problem is also here. The price is about 40% above the 15-minute double moving average, hugging today’s high. On the 4-hour timeframe, it just closed with a pullback—from 0.0149 back to around 0.014. Now that it has already risen this much, the entry point for those who chased is no longer very attractive.
Next, where did the money come from. The contract open interest surged by 70% in one day, and the funding rate has stayed in the positive zone. Active buying accounts for 53%—plainly speaking, this rally was “burned” by contract leverage. But on the spot side, the net inflow from large orders is 0. During the whole push higher, there were no big spot orders absorbing.
Big players are also showing some cracks: the number of accounts is shrinking, and the remaining positions are only barely tilted long. When there are lots of people, following along is fine; when people start to disperse, you need to weigh it.
The trend hasn’t broken, but the long side’s advantage is no longer as obvious. The cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is average. I’d rather wait for a pullback, and wait until spot capital truly comes in before entering. If you already hold positions, pay attention—volatility may amplify.
#avaai $AVAAI
The increase is real. Over 7 days it’s close to 70%, over 24 hours it’s 26%. It went from 0.008 all the way up to 0.0151, and the 4-hour chart is still up—momentum is there. There’s nothing to nitpick about.
But the problem is also here. The price is about 40% above the 15-minute double moving average, hugging today’s high. On the 4-hour timeframe, it just closed with a pullback—from 0.0149 back to around 0.014. Now that it has already risen this much, the entry point for those who chased is no longer very attractive.
Next, where did the money come from. The contract open interest surged by 70% in one day, and the funding rate has stayed in the positive zone. Active buying accounts for 53%—plainly speaking, this rally was “burned” by contract leverage. But on the spot side, the net inflow from large orders is 0. During the whole push higher, there were no big spot orders absorbing.
Big players are also showing some cracks: the number of accounts is shrinking, and the remaining positions are only barely tilted long. When there are lots of people, following along is fine; when people start to disperse, you need to weigh it.
The trend hasn’t broken, but the long side’s advantage is no longer as obvious. The cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is average. I’d rather wait for a pullback, and wait until spot capital truly comes in before entering. If you already hold positions, pay attention—volatility may amplify.
#avaai $AVAAI