Damn, Micron MU and SanDisk SNDK are really my pain points. Look at my trade record—there I was, with a chance to take the big bite, and yet I always ended up skimming off a little oil and running away!
I got the direction right, and I timed the swings—yet in the end I still sold too early.
A week ago, after the MU and SNDK earnings reports, both dropped hard. Everyone was shouting, “AI storage is over.”
My take at the time was: the decline isn’t because demand disappeared—it’s because the valuations have to digest after expectations were overly priced in. What really mattered was whether, once the price fell, there would be fresh capital stepping in.
Looking back now, that assessment is basically confirmed.
MU stabilized above the $800–$820 support zone, then regained momentum and broke back through $900. It’s now at $956, right inside the $950–$1,000 target zone I had earlier laid out.
SNDK’s move is even more typical. After the earnings report, I shorted around $1,420 and took profit near $1,270—capturing the selloff that matched the expected outcome. But later, I entered the rebound swing too early. Then it promptly looked like it was back above $1,500, which definitely has that “sold too early” flavor.
That’s the most real part of trading: getting the direction right doesn’t necessarily mean you can capture the entire move; selling too early doesn’t automatically mean you did something wrong—it just means the market is stronger than you expected.
This rebound in SNDK isn’t just a pure sentiment recovery. In an investor day, the company laid out growth targets for fiscal years 2028–2030 in the high double-digits. Adjusted gross margin is expected to hold around 80%, and they increased revenue certainty through long-term customer agreements. The stock jumped 13.7% in a single day, while MU also rose 4.2%.
Going forward, I think:
MU first to watch is $950–$1,000.
If it puts volume behind and holds above $1,000, the trend can continue. But if it falls back below $900 again, that suggests the selling pressure above hasn’t fully been digested.
For SNDK, I’d look first at $1,580.
After a breakout, you could target $1,650–$1,700. But if it spikes up and then falls back under $1,500, watch for a pullback to $1,350–$1,400.
My view hasn’t changed:
The AI storage cycle isn’t over yet, but the market has shifted from “it goes up even if you buy with your eyes closed” to a phase where “orders, profit margins, and long-term guidance must keep getting delivered.”
As for selling too early—sure, it’s definitely a little painful. But trading isn’t a contest to see who sells at the very highest point. The money you should earn, you earned. The rest isn’t mine—and there’s no need to chase back in just because of unwillingness. Stay rational, and absolutely don’t let emotions take over!
I got the direction right, and I timed the swings—yet in the end I still sold too early.
A week ago, after the MU and SNDK earnings reports, both dropped hard. Everyone was shouting, “AI storage is over.”
My take at the time was: the decline isn’t because demand disappeared—it’s because the valuations have to digest after expectations were overly priced in. What really mattered was whether, once the price fell, there would be fresh capital stepping in.
Looking back now, that assessment is basically confirmed.
MU stabilized above the $800–$820 support zone, then regained momentum and broke back through $900. It’s now at $956, right inside the $950–$1,000 target zone I had earlier laid out.
SNDK’s move is even more typical. After the earnings report, I shorted around $1,420 and took profit near $1,270—capturing the selloff that matched the expected outcome. But later, I entered the rebound swing too early. Then it promptly looked like it was back above $1,500, which definitely has that “sold too early” flavor.
That’s the most real part of trading: getting the direction right doesn’t necessarily mean you can capture the entire move; selling too early doesn’t automatically mean you did something wrong—it just means the market is stronger than you expected.
This rebound in SNDK isn’t just a pure sentiment recovery. In an investor day, the company laid out growth targets for fiscal years 2028–2030 in the high double-digits. Adjusted gross margin is expected to hold around 80%, and they increased revenue certainty through long-term customer agreements. The stock jumped 13.7% in a single day, while MU also rose 4.2%.
Going forward, I think:
MU first to watch is $950–$1,000.
If it puts volume behind and holds above $1,000, the trend can continue. But if it falls back below $900 again, that suggests the selling pressure above hasn’t fully been digested.
For SNDK, I’d look first at $1,580.
After a breakout, you could target $1,650–$1,700. But if it spikes up and then falls back under $1,500, watch for a pullback to $1,350–$1,400.
My view hasn’t changed:
The AI storage cycle isn’t over yet, but the market has shifted from “it goes up even if you buy with your eyes closed” to a phase where “orders, profit margins, and long-term guidance must keep getting delivered.”
As for selling too early—sure, it’s definitely a little painful. But trading isn’t a contest to see who sells at the very highest point. The money you should earn, you earned. The rest isn’t mine—and there’s no need to chase back in just because of unwillingness. Stay rational, and absolutely don’t let emotions take over!