A Million-Dollar Bitcoin Dream Gets Cold Water Thrown on It
Bitwise just said that within the next decade, Bitcoin could surge to $1.3 million—but then CoinDesk’s analysis poured a bucket of cold water on it. If you calculate using one key ratio, such predictions may be a bit too greedy.
The logic is this: when people estimate Bitcoin’s market cap, they focus only on how much of the gold premium it might capture, but they forget opportunity cost. Money put into Bitcoin earns no interest.
Now, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has already broken above 5%, hitting a new high since 2007. With the same amount of money, putting it in Treasuries means you get 5% a year for nothing; putting it in Bitcoin relies purely on faith. Capital isn’t stupid—it will choose.
The data is also quite honest. In the bull run of 2025, Bitcoin’s dollar price indeed reached a new high. But when you divide the price by the 30-year yield, it still somehow didn’t even reach the 2021 peak. In history, this has never happened before.
What’s even more troublesome is that this ratio has just slipped below a long-standing support line, forming a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern. Statistical data shows that after this formation confirms, the average outcome is a further drop of 16%.
Of course, this doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s dollar price won’t rise. It just means that if you want to reach seven figures, you first need to wait for the interest-rate environment to return to the kind of massive liquidity “flooding” seen in 2020–2021. Right now, the direction is the opposite.
My view: predictions can be bold, but respect the data. The U.S. Treasury yield is the measuring stick hanging over Bitcoin’s head.
Do you believe in $1.3 million, or do you believe in this ratio? Comment below and pick a side.
Click the avatar to watch the live stream.
Every day, I’ll take you to track Bitcoin’s hot topics—not just what happens in the news, but also help you understand the logic and opportunities behind it 👉🦖
#比特币 #Macro
Bitwise just said that within the next decade, Bitcoin could surge to $1.3 million—but then CoinDesk’s analysis poured a bucket of cold water on it. If you calculate using one key ratio, such predictions may be a bit too greedy.
The logic is this: when people estimate Bitcoin’s market cap, they focus only on how much of the gold premium it might capture, but they forget opportunity cost. Money put into Bitcoin earns no interest.
Now, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has already broken above 5%, hitting a new high since 2007. With the same amount of money, putting it in Treasuries means you get 5% a year for nothing; putting it in Bitcoin relies purely on faith. Capital isn’t stupid—it will choose.
The data is also quite honest. In the bull run of 2025, Bitcoin’s dollar price indeed reached a new high. But when you divide the price by the 30-year yield, it still somehow didn’t even reach the 2021 peak. In history, this has never happened before.
What’s even more troublesome is that this ratio has just slipped below a long-standing support line, forming a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern. Statistical data shows that after this formation confirms, the average outcome is a further drop of 16%.
Of course, this doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s dollar price won’t rise. It just means that if you want to reach seven figures, you first need to wait for the interest-rate environment to return to the kind of massive liquidity “flooding” seen in 2020–2021. Right now, the direction is the opposite.
My view: predictions can be bold, but respect the data. The U.S. Treasury yield is the measuring stick hanging over Bitcoin’s head.
Do you believe in $1.3 million, or do you believe in this ratio? Comment below and pick a side.
Click the avatar to watch the live stream.
Every day, I’ll take you to track Bitcoin’s hot topics—not just what happens in the news, but also help you understand the logic and opportunities behind it 👉🦖
#比特币 #Macro